World grain harvest in MY 2023-2024 will be the largest in history – IGS

The International Grains Council (IGC) notes in a Jan. 11 release that total grain production (including wheat and coarse grains) in 2023-2024 “will be the largest ever (2.307 billion tons), with a 2% year-over-year increase due mainly to strong growth in corn production, up nearly 6% year-over-year.”

Increases in corn production were seen in China, Russia and Ukraine, while decreases were seen in Brazil

The IGC raised its corn production forecast by 7 million tons from the previous month, with production in 2023-2024 now forecast at 1.230 billion tons, up from 1.165 billion in the last marketing year.

Wheat production is forecast to fall 2% (16 million tons) year-on-year, IGC analysts wrote, although the data is revised higher by 1 million tons from last month’s report.

While total grain production is forecast higher compared with the last marketing year, consumption is also projected to increase, further reducing global carryover grain stocks. Consumption was revised higher from the previous report by 6 million tons to 2.314 billion tons, an increase of nearly 2% from 2022-2023.

Сarryover stocks were revised higher by 5 million tons month-on-month, but total carryover grain stocks for the 2023-24 marketing year are expected to fall (as they have for the seventh consecutive year) to 590 million tons, down from the most recent stock peak of 658 million tons in the 2016-17 marketing year.

According to IGC, as a smaller soybean crop in Brazil outweighs growth elsewhere, global soybean production in 2023-2024 is projected to be 3 million tons lower than the previous report. However, at 392 million tons, this is still 6% higher than last marketing year.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index fell 6% from the previous month as declines were seen in all grains and oilseeds except rice, which increased by nearly 8%. The index, which now stands at 247, is 19% lower year-on-year, reflecting significant price declines in corn, wheat and soybeans.”

Tags: grain, wheat, crop forecast, corn