World geopolitics will block global agricultural trade – Den Basse

The grain market outlook remains bearish.

The redistribution of power in the global economy and trade is increasingly impacting grain and oilseed markets, said AgResource President Dan Basse. According to him, key decisions on global trade policy are currently being made in Beijing and Washington, while the Trump administration is attempting to reshape global trade through tariffs and a more assertive foreign policy.

“We believe that global geopolitics is reshaping global agricultural trade. Whether you consider Trump an angel or a devil, he plays a huge role in many grain discussions not only in the US but around the world,” Basse emphasized.

According to AgResource, the US share of global grain exports has fallen to 16%, and against this backdrop, tariff policy is becoming a tool in the struggle for competitiveness. Meanwhile, grain production costs continue to rise, and farmers’ profits worldwide are declining amid low agricultural prices.

“We calculated that the 2025 harvest in the Northern Hemisphere brought farmers the lowest margins since 2019. And now the downturn in the US is exacerbating financial pressure on farmers outside the US. American farmers still have large inventories of wheat, corn, and soybeans from the old crop. I think this will put downward pressure on the market as the new season approaches, unless weather anomalies help us maintain prices,” Basse said.

Bassé cited China as an additional factor in global demand, where grain imports have “plateaued” and may decline in the coming years. The expert noted that for two decades, China was the main driver of demand in the global grain market, but the country is now striving for self-sufficiency. Furthermore, China’s population is projected to decline by 40-50 million over the next five years.

At the same time, China’s declining role as a key grain buyer is not fully compensated for by other markets: India and Africa, he estimates, are “10-15 years behind” as potential drivers of comparable demand, so exporting countries will have to compete more fiercely for global market share.

Overall, AgResource’s overall forecast for the grain market remains bearish due to oversupply and high inventories. According to Basse, for sustained price growth in the new season, the market will need a “supply disruption”—primarily a weather factor or other supply imbalances.

“We really need a supply disruption, weather problems, or something similar to count on sustained price growth in the coming season,” the expert concluded.

Tags: China, grain, prices, oilseeds, India, USA