World enters an era of record wheat crops and expanding exporter stocks
Speaking at the IAOM MEA conference in Jeddah, AgResource President and Founder Dan Basse outlined the new reality of the global wheat market: record harvests, rising exporter inventories, and slowing demand growth. According to Basse, the world is not short of grain, but the industry cannot afford complacency — competition is increasingly shifting toward protein quality, logistics, origin flexibility, and farmer behaviour.
Basse noted that “Mother Nature has been kind,” with AgResource estimating average global wheat yields in 2025 at a record 3.76 t/ha — the highest level ever recorded without a major expansion in harvested area. If normal weather persists, the 2026 global wheat crop could rise by another 2 MMT, pushing supplies to fresh highs.
His presentation also highlighted a significant build-up in ending stocks among major exporting countries, with the exporter stock-to-use ratio returning to the low-20% range — one of the most comfortable positions in decades. A similar story is unfolding in corn: AgResource projects combined production in the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina to exceed 616 MMT in 2025/26.
Demand, however, is not rising at the same pace. Basse stressed that while global wheat exports remain elevated, growth has largely stalled. In 2026, total global wheat feeding is expected to remain flat, while feed wheat imports may fall by 2.2 MMT — nearly 9% — as cheaper corn and sorghum replace wheat in many livestock rations.
Under these conditions, AgResource anticipates a period of relatively low global wheat prices. Yet Basse warned that the environment is far from risk-free. The main vulnerabilities he identified are weather volatility — such as a severe drought — and geopolitical disruptions, especially in the Black Sea region. He cautioned that potential Russian actions targeting Ukraine’s port of Odesa or key shipping corridors could destabilize export flows.
In conclusion, Basse emphasized that the market is entering a phase of high supplies and only modest demand growth, where competition among exporters will be driven not only by price but also by quality, logistical reliability, and origin flexibility. The next two seasons, he said, will test the grain sector’s adaptability and its capacity for innovation.
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