World Bank forecasts a 12% decline in commodity prices in 2025 and another 5% in 2026
World Bank (WB) experts predict that inflation risks caused by trade wars will be mitigated by a decline in commodity prices by 12% in 2025 and another 5% in 2026 to the lowest level of the 2020s, and the price of Brent crude oil will fall from $81/barrel in 2024 to $64/barrel in 2025.
The Commodity Market Outlook report indicates that, taking into account inflation, commodity prices will fall to the average level of 2015-2019 over the next two years. This will be the end of the price boom caused by the economic recovery after the Covid pandemic and global conflicts.
Lower prices will mitigate inflation risks caused by US trade wars, but will have negative consequences for emerging economies that rely on commodity exports.
“Two-thirds of developing countries are commodity exporters, which benefit from high commodity prices. But now we are seeing low commodity prices and high volatility, which will have a negative impact, so such countries need to liberalize trade, restore fiscal discipline where possible, and create an environment conducive to business and private investment,” the World Bank said.
A sharp increase in energy prices in 2022 increased global inflation by more than 2%, but a decrease in prices in 2023 and 2024 helped to contain it. According to the World Bank, in 2025 energy prices will decrease by 17% to a 5-year low, and in 2026 they will decrease by another 6%.
The average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 will decrease by $17/barrel to $64/barrel compared to the previous year, and in 2026 – to $60/barrel against the backdrop of increased supply and reduced demand caused by the development of the electric vehicle market in China, the world’s largest auto market.
Coal prices will fall by 27% in 2025 and by another 5% in 2026 due to reduced coal consumption in electricity generation in developing countries.
Food prices will fall by 7% in 2025 and another 1% in 2026, but this will not help solve the problem of food shortages in the most vulnerable countries, as humanitarian aid is reduced and military conflicts exacerbate hunger.
World Bank experts also expect record gold prices in 2025, as investors will look for safe assets amid increasing uncertainty, but prices will stabilize in 2026.
For almost 30 years of expertise in the agri markets, UkrAgroConsult has accumulated an extensive database, which became the basis of the platform AgriSupp.
It is a multi-functional online platform with market intelligence for grains and oilseeds that enables to get access to daily operational information on the Black Sea & Danube markets, analytical reports, historical data.
You are welcome to get a 7-day free demo access!!!
Got additional questions?
We will be happy to assist!
Write to us
Our manager will contact you soon