Why Ukrainian rapeseed exports are falling — and who is winning in 2025/26

UkrAgroConsult

The first half of the MY 2025/26 signals a decisive turning point for Ukraine’s rapeseed market. A single regulatory decision — the 10% export duty — has already reshaped trade flows, disrupted traditional export patterns, and triggered a rapid shift toward domestic processing. What initially looked like a temporary slowdown is now clearly emerging as a structural transformation.

Export charts reveal a sharp contraction in rapeseed shipments, while processing indicators move in the opposite direction. Crushing volumes are heading toward record levels, and exports of rapeseed oil and meal are accelerating, partially replacing raw seed exports. This new balance is redefining price formation, competition for raw material, and sales strategies across the market.

At the same time, early signals for the next season are becoming visible. Weather risks for winter rapeseed, intensified competition between exporters and crushers, and changing demand patterns in the EU and global markets suggest that the transition is far from complete — and the decisions made now will shape margins in 2026/27.

What This Analysis Reveals

• How the export duty is fundamentally changing the rapeseed value chain
• Why domestic processors are becoming the key price-setters
• Where the main risks and opportunities for the next season are forming
• Exports of rapeseed oil and meal expanded sharply
• Competition between exporters and processors is intensifying

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Tags: Ukraine, export, price, rapeseed, duties