Wheat stock quotes fell another 2-3% yesterday and returned to levels that preceded the speculative growth

On Monday, wheat quotes fell by 1.8-2.8%, and yesterday they accelerated their decline and decreased by another 2-3.3%, excluding durum wheat prices in Minneapolis.

Traders were not deterred by the report on the delay in the winter wheat harvest in the US and a slight deterioration in the condition of spring wheat crops, as they paid attention to the low demand and export rates of the new crop, as well as the increase in forecasts for Russia.

July US wheat futures fell yesterday:

• by 3.3% to $196.9/t for SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 2.9% to $196.5/t for HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 0.3% to $229.7/t for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+0.7% for the week),

September wheat futures on the Paris-based Euronext exchange fell 2% yesterday to €200/t or $232.2/t amid improved crop forecasts in the EU.

The MARS crop monitoring service has increased the forecast for the yield of common wheat in the EU in 2025 from 6.04 t/ha to 6.05 t/ha, which will exceed the 2024 figure by 9% and the 5-year average by 5%, as the weather in the southern regions of the EU is conducive to crop development.

EU wheat exports in the MY 2024/25 (as of June 22) amounted to only 19.93 million tonnes, significantly less than the 30.53 million tonnes shipped in the same period last year. Even taking into account that some countries have not yet submitted all the data, it is already clear that EU wheat stocks at the start of the season will be higher than forecast.

In Ukraine, export purchase prices for wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports increased by 50-100 UAH/t yesterday against the backdrop of the dollar’s rise against the hryvnia and amounted to:

• for food wheat – 9800–10000 UAH/t or 207–210 $/t,
• for feed – 9300–9400 UAH/t or 198-200 $/t.

Export prices for Russian wheat have decreased to $226-230/t FOB compared to $234-236/t a year ago, and prices with delivery to ports through customs are only $180-184/t, which will continue to limit the growth of wheat prices in Ukraine, which will compete for buyers with Romanian and Russian wheat.

Ukraine exported 1.9 million tons of wheat to Egypt in July-May MY 2024/25, compared to 1.6 million tons for the same period in the previous season, while Russia increased its supplies by 7.8% to 8 million tons.

Tags: prices, wheat