Wheat stock quotes are falling, but in Ukraine, a shortage of supply is supporting prices

In Ukraine, farmers are holding back wheat sales amid a lack of rainfall, which keeps demand and prices for food grains high, while quotes on world exchanges have decreased by 1.5-2.8% over the week due to favorable weather in the EU and the US and reduced import demand.

During the week, export prices for food wheat in Black Sea ports remained at the level of 11,000-11,100 UAH/t or 234-237 $/t, and for feed wheat – within 10,550-10,650 UAH/t or 225-226 $/t.

In the MY 2024/25, Ukraine reduced wheat exports compared to the same period in the previous season by 11.1% from 15 to 13.49 million tons, in particular, in the period from April 1 to 17 – from 1.17 million tons to 367 thousand tons.

Since Monday, May wheat futures have fallen:

• by 2.5% to $196.8/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-2.2% per week),
• by 2.2% to $200.6/t – for durum winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-1.7%),
• by 1.8% to $218.8/t – for durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-1.5%),
• by 1.3% to €208.5/t or $237/t – for wheat on the Euronext exchange in Paris (-2.8%).

Prices are being pressured by data from the weekly Crop Progress report, according to which, as of April 20, 17% of the area in the US was sown with spring wheat (12% on average for 5 years), and the number of winter wheat crops in good or excellent condition decreased by 2% to 45% (56% last year) during the week.

Wheat exports from the US decreased by 16.5% to 510,250 tons during April 11-17, and in total for the season reached 18.8 million tons, which is 14.4% higher than last year’s pace.

According to the European Commission, in the 2024/25 MY, wheat exports from the EU decreased by 35% compared to the previous season to 16.76 million tons, and imports decreased by 14% to 6.6 million tons.

During the week, prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein and delivery in April-May remained at $249-251/t FOB, while prices for August deliveries of the new crop decreased to $230-235/t FOB against the backdrop of improved harvest forecasts in Russia, Rusagrotrans reports.

At the same time, in other countries, old-crop wheat has become cheaper, in particular, Romanian wheat – by $7/t to $248/t, French wheat – by $8/t to $244/t, American wheat – by $3/t to $231/t.

From February 15 to April 20, the Russian Federation exported 4.154 million tons of wheat within the quota, which is 39.2% of the total quota volume (10.6 million tons) and is 2.7 times lower than the corresponding figure last year (11.309 million tons).

On April 17, the Tunisian State Agency (ODC) purchased 75,000 tons of common wheat of any origin at a price of $262.91-264.86/ton C&F, which is $5-6/ton lower than the purchase price in the previous tender on March 13.

The Algerian State Grain Agency (OAIC) purchased at least 570,000 tons of milling wheat of any origin in a tender on April 16 for delivery on June 1-30 at a price of $267.5/ton C&F, which is $1/ton lower than in the previous tender on March 12. The main suppliers will be Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria, while French wheat was not allowed to participate in the tender due to tense relations between the countries.

For comparison, the offer prices of Ukrainian milling wheat with 11.5% protein remained stable, and were $245/t FOB on March 12, and $245-246/t FOB on April 16.