Wheat stock prices resume growth, and in Ukraine prices are supported by high demand from processors

Decline in world wheat prices over the past two weeks has led to a drop in purchase prices in the black sea ports of Ukraine, which allowed processors to increase purchases.

During the week, the demand prices in ports decreased by 50-100 UAH/t to 9700-10000 UAH/t or 209-212 USD/t for food wheat and 9400-9450 UAH/t or 202-204 USD/t for feed wheat. At the same time, processors raised prices by 100-200 UAH/t to 9500-10200 UAH/t with delivery to the mill, which immediately increased the supply from farmers.

According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, as of November 18, Ukraine planted 5.06 mln ha with winter grains or 98% of the planned area, including 4.4 mln ha (97%) with wheat.

After a two-week decline, wheat prices on world exchanges rose yesterday amid heavy shelling of Ukraine and a likely escalation after the authorization of strikes on Russian territory by Western missiles with a range of up to 300 km.

Improved crop conditions in the United States and harvesting in Australia and Argentina restrain the speculative growth of quotations, but March futures are trading at 2.5-3.5% more expensive than in December.

Yesterday, December futures rose:

• by 2% to 201.1 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-3.3% for the week),
• by 2.8% to 204 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-0.9%),
• by 2.2% to 215 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-1.4%).
• 0.8% to 218 €/t or 231 $/t – wheat futures on the Paris Euronext (+0.8%).

According to the Crop Progress from NASS USDA, as of November 17, 94% of the area planted with winter wheat in the U.S. (96% on average for 5 years), and the number of crops in good or excellent condition for the week increased by 5% to 49% (47% last year). Wheat exports from the U.S. fell by 44.5% to 196.3 thousand tons over the week, and in general, the season will reach 10.325 million tons, which is 31.37% ahead of last year’s pace.

Wheat sowing in the EU is accelerating, and in France, where rains delayed the work, 78% of the planned areas have already been sown (70% last year). According to the forecast of Strategie Grains, the EU winter wheat planting area for the 2025 harvest will increase by 5% to 21.4 mln ha due to high prices and favorable autumn weather.

According to the Australian Statistical Agency, in MY 2023/24 the country exported 19.59 mln tonnes of wheat, down 38% from the record figure of 31.67 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY, and this year it will be able to export almost 25 mln tonnes.

Tags: Australia, Ukraine, prices, France, wheat, USA, Argentina