Wheat quotes rose on concerns about blocking supplies from Ukraine and Russia, but prices in Ukraine fell

Russia’s threats to intensify attacks on Ukrainian ports and ships calling at them have led to a speculative increase in wheat stock market quotes and an increase in the cost of insurance for ships calling at Ukrainian ports. But all this, in turn, has caused a drop in wheat prices in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian drone attacks on sanctioned tankers in the Black Sea were the first attacks on civilian vessels flying a flag other than Russia, and raised concerns about increased attacks on civilian vessels from both Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea, as well as attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure, which would lead to restrictions on exports from the region.

On all wheat exchanges, there has been a speculative increase in December wheat futures over the past 7 days:

• by 1.7% to $197.6/t – for SRW wheat in Chicago (-2.4% per month),
• by 0.7% to $191.4/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City (-2.9%),
• by 2.2% to $214/t – for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+5.5%),
• by 2% to €193/t or $225/t – for wheat on the Euronext exchange in Paris (-0.4%).

At the same time, under the pressure of fundamental factors, production forecasts increased, quotes showed a decrease during the month.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has raised its forecast for Argentina’s wheat harvest in the MY 2025/26 to a record 25.5 million tons, which would exceed the previous record of 22.4 million tons harvested in the MY 2021/22 and be 38% larger than last season.

Experts from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resources and Economics (ABARES) have increased their estimates of wheat production in Australia by 5.3% to 35.6 million tonnes (34.111 million tonnes last year).

Statistics Canada (StatCan) will release its updated report on major crop production for the 2025/26 today. Analysts polled by Reuters expect it to raise estimates for Canadian wheat production to 38.49 million tonnes, exceeding the USDA forecast of 37 million tonnes and last season’s figure of 35 million tonnes.

Purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine decreased by $2-5/t during the week to $217-220/t or UAH 10,450-10,600/t for food wheat and by $1-2/t to $210-212/t or UAH 10,150-10,250/t for feed wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports.

A missile strike on a Ukrainian Black Sea port yesterday halted cargo operations and cut off electricity at terminals, confirming that Russia will continue to use terrorist attacks to block Ukraine’s economy.

Wheat exports from Russia in November, according to Rusagrotrans, amounted to a record 5.5 million tons for this month, and prices for Russian wheat (protein 12.5%) with delivery in December remain at $227-228/ton (FOB), while French wheat is offered at $227/ton, Romanian wheat at $232/ton, Ukrainian wheat at $228-229/ton, American wheat at $237/ton, and Argentine wheat at $209/ton.

The results of a tender in Algeria, which came this week, show a further decline in prices. The Algerian state grain agency OAIC purchased in a tender from 250 thousand to 800 thousand tons of soft milling wheat for delivery in February at a price of $ 255-256/ton C&F, lower than in other tenders held last week.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat