Wheat quotes on stock exchanges fell by 5.4-9% in a week, but wheat prices in Ukraine are rising

In recent days, wheat quotes have fallen sharply by 5.4-9%, rolling back to the level of the previous month, under pressure from confirmation of forecasts of a good harvest in major exporting countries, as well as a decrease in the speculative impact of the war in the Middle East.

In Ukraine, export prices for wheat, on the contrary, are gradually increasing after falling in early June, receiving support from the strengthening dollar exchange rate and the results of importer tenders, where Ukrainian wheat was also sold.

Yesterday, export purchase prices for wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports increased by another 50-100 UAH/t and amounted to:

• for food wheat – 9800–10050 UAH/t or 208–211 $/t,
• for feed – 9400–9500 UAH/t or 198-200 $/t.

July US wheat futures fell yesterday:

• by 1.4% to $194.1/t for SRW wheat in Chicago (-8.7% for the week),
• by 2% to $192.6/t for HRW wheat in Kansas City (-9%)
• by 2.2% to $224.7/t for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+-5.5%).

September wheat futures on the Euronext Paris exchange fell 1.4% yesterday to €197.25/t or $230.5/t (-5.4% for the week).

According to Reuters, Egyptian grain agent Mostakbal Misr purchased a large volume (400-600 thousand tons) of Black Sea wheat of Russian, Ukrainian and Romanian origin for delivery in July-August 2025 at a price of $250-258/ton C&F, which is slightly higher than the purchase price in April, when wheat for delivery in May-June was purchased at $246/ton C&F with immediate payment and $256/ton C&F with payment in 180 days.

Given the low level of freight, wheat prices in Ukraine and Russia will correspond to the level of $225-230/t FOB, so prices for Ukrainian wheat will continue to grow.

It is worth considering that September futures for American wheat are trading $5-6/t more expensive than July futures, and December futures for French wheat are €13/t more expensive than September futures, which indicates that traders expect further price increases in the new season.

On Monday, the US Food and Agriculture Organization will release its quarterly report on grain stocks and acreage in the US, as well as data on ending wheat stocks in the MY 2024/25, which could significantly change stock quotes.