Wheat quotations on world markets are falling in anticipation of the January USDA report

Wheat quotations on global exchanges are falling ahead of the January USDA report, which may raise the harvest forecast in Australia and the ending stocks estimate. In addition, the forecast of wheat production for Argentina, where 95% of the crops have already been threshed, should be adjusted.

Today is a day off in the United States on the occasion of the funeral of President Carter, so the USDA report will be released on Friday, including estimates of winter wheat planting areas.

March wheat futures yesterday fell:

• by 1.2% to 197 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-2.9% for the week),
• by 1.1% to 202.1 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-0.7%),
• by 1.7% to 215 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-1.9%),

March wheat futures on the Paris Euronext remained unchanged at 230.75 €/t or 237.7 $/t (0%).

Data USDA that in Kansas in good or excellent condition now is only 47% of winter wheat crops (compared to 55% at the end of November) has not yet supported the quotes.

Exports of wheat from the United States in 2024/25 MG reached 12,716 million tons, which is 25.1% ahead of last year.

Egypt in 2024 increased imports of wheat compared to 2023 by 40% from 10 to 14 million tons due to increased supply by commercial enterprises amid reduced purchases by the state Agency GASC.

In India, wheat prices rose to a record level due to reduced supplies amid strong demand from millers trying to provide themselves with raw materials to operate at full capacity. The country’s authorities sell 100 thousand tons of wheat to wholesale buyers from the reserves every week, but this is not enough to meet demand, so sales need to be increased.

In Ukraine, the export demand prices in the Black Sea ports remain at 210-216 $/t or 10200-10300 UAH/t for milling wheat and 205-208 $/t or 9750-9850 UAH/t for feed wheat, but producers continue to restrain sales.

In 2024/25 MY, Ukraine exported 9.98 mln tonnes of wheat, including 209 thsd tonnes in January, while in the previous season the figures were 7.8 mln tonnes and 208 thsd tonnes, respectively.

the Ministry of industry and trade of Jordan this week purchased at tender 60 thousand tons of milling wheat for shipment from 1 to 15 March at a price of 268,9 $/t C&F from CHS, although the bid prices were 270,5-283 $/t, indicating the willingness of buyers to lower prices for the sale of even small batches.

Tags: prices, wheat