Wheat quotations on world exchanges rose by 2-2.6% after updating multi-year lows

On the data on the decline of the wheat harvest in the EU traders yesterday actively bought wheat futures, resulting in quotations rose by 2-2.6%, partially recovering the fall last week.

Agency MARS on Monday lowered compared to the estimates of July forecasts of the average yield of soft wheat in the EU from 5.87 to 5.68 t/ha, which is 2% lower than in 2023.

Yesterday, September wheat futures fell:

• by 2% to 186.8 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 2.6% to 198 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 0.9% to 200.7 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis,
• by 2.2% to 193,75 €/t or 216,3 $/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext.

Prices are pressured by the slow pace of wheat exports from the EU, which, according to the European Commission, in 2024/25 MG (as of August 23) amounted to 3.93 million tons, which is 22% lower than the corresponding figure last year.

Association of cooperatives DRV lowered the forecast of wheat harvest in Germany by 1.4 mln tonnes to 18.8 mln tonnes (21.5 mln tonnes in 2023).

Today, the updated official forecast of wheat harvest in Canada will be released, where, according to the Bloomberg survey, the production estimate may be reduced to 33.8 mln tonnes (32 mln tonnes last year), although USDA in August estimated it at 35 mln tonnes.

According to Rusagrotrans, export prices for September shipments of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein fell by $3.5/t to $216/t FOB, for French wheat by $6/t to $224/t, for German wheat by $10/t to $233/t, and for American wheat by $6/t to $213/t.

Decline in prices is due to reduced demand from importing countries and rumors of a possible extension of the ban on imports of wheat to Turkey until the end of the year.

Experts have raised the forecast of wheat exports from Russia in August from 4.5 to 4.9-5 million tons (5.4 million tons last year), and in total for two months it may reach 8.8 million tons compared to a record 9.6 million tons for the corresponding period of 2023.

As of August 26, Russia harvested 66 mln tonnes of wheat from 64% of the area (29.8 mln ha), so the total harvest may reach or exceed the forecasted 84-86 mln tonnes, as the spring wheat yield in Siberia is very high. In October, this will become an additional factor of pressure on global prices.

Tags: prices, wheat