Wheat quotations on world exchanges fell by 2-3.5%, despite problems with the harvest in Russia

Wheat quotations on world exchanges yesterday fell by 2-3.5% amid profit-taking by traders, but the overall weekly growth was only 1-2.2%.

The market has not yet reacted to the deteriorating prospects for the wheat harvest in Russia and the high rate of exports of cheap Russian and Ukrainian wheat, which will significantly reduce the export potential in the second half of the season.

In eastern Siberia, excessive rainfall led to the introduction of the state of emergency, the loss of 200 thousand hectares of crops and delayed harvesting. Wheat has been harvested on 15-20% of the area compared to 35-45% on average at this time. In general, Russia harvested 97 mln tons of grain from 70% of the area, including 72 mln tons of wheat. Dry, hot weather in the South-West of Russia has delayed the sowing of winter crops, so only 5.5 million hectares of the planned 19 million hectares have been planted with wheat.

Statistics Canada StatCan yesterday lowered compared to the estimates of August, the forecast of wheat harvest in 2024/25 MG from 34.4 to 34.3 million tons (35 million tons according to the USDA), which is 4.1% lower than last year.

In September 6-12, the U.S. wheat exports totaled 556.9 thsd tonnes, and the total for the season – 6.9 mln tonnes, up 33% compared to last year.

According to Crop Progress, as of September 15, winter wheat was planted on 14% of the area (15% on average), and spring wheat was harvested on 92% of the area (90%).

December wheat futures declined:

• by 2.9% to 212.56 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+1.8% for the week),
• by 3.5% to 213.3 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+0.8%),
• by 2.6% to 227.7 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+2.2%),
• by 2% to 220.5 €/t or 245.3 $/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext (+1.1%).

In Russia, export prices for wheat remain at 217-220 $/t FOB, while the price of Ukrainian wheat amid increased demand rose to 220-225 $/t FOB, and for Romanian and Bulgarian wheat – up to 230 $/t FOB.

In Ukraine, export purchase prices during the week increased by 2-3 $/t to 202-206 $/t or 9400-9500 UAH/t for food and 183-185 $/t or 8600-8650 UAH/t for feed wheat with delivery to the Black Sea ports.

In 2024/25 MY (as of September 16), Ukraine exported 4.75 mln tonnes of wheat (68% up from last year’s 2.826 mln tonnes), out of 15 mln tonnes forecasted by USDA and 16.2 mln tonnes agreed by the Memorandum.

Reduced wheat harvest in Russia and dry weather in eastern Ukraine will reduce the volume of supply from producers, which will lead to higher prices for Russian wheat and its main competitor in North African markets – European wheat.

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Tags: Ukraine, Russia, EU, prices, wheat, USA