Wheat quotations for the week rose significantly on forecasts of a decline in the harvest in the EU and Russia

Wheat quotations on world markets after falling on Monday to record lows in the following sessions rose by 3.9-6.3% on forecasts of reduced harvest in the EU and Russia, but still 1.3-7% below the price level of the end of July.

the European Commission has lowered its forecast of the harvest of soft wheat in the EU in MY 2024/25 from 120.8 to 116.1 million tons (125 million tons in MY 2023/24), and the export forecast – from 32 to 26 million tons (35.1 million tons in MY 2023/24).

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture of Germany, due to excessive rainfall, wheat production in the country will decrease by 12.7% to 18.8 mln tonnes compared to the previous season, and the quality of the grain will deteriorate, in particular, the protein content will decrease.

The Argus Agency forecasts that in MY2024/25 France will export 4.1 mln tonnes of wheat outside the EU, compared to 10 mln tonnes on average for 5 years.

SovEcon experts lowered the forecast of wheat harvest in Russia by 0.8 to 82.5 million tons due to lower than expected yields in the Center and the Volga region.

September futures declined:

• by 1.4% to 195.75 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+6.2% for the week, -1.3% for the month),
• by 1.3% to 203 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+6.3%, -1.4%),
• by 2% to 210.8 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+3.9%, -3.6%),
• by 1.7% to 205.75 €/t or 227.27 $/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext (+5.8%, -7%).

This week, the exchanges will continue to respond to the updated wheat balance sheets, and traders will switch to trading December futures, which are now trading at 2.2-5.2% more expensive than September.

Tags: Russia, EU, prices, France, wheat