Wheat production in the UK will increase, but remain below average

According to forecasts, wheat production in the UK this year will be about 12.5 million tons, which is 1.4 million tons more than last year. However, the harvest is still expected to be below historical averages due to unfavorable weather conditions that affected crops in southern England. The next few months will be crucial for future yields as spring sowing and winter crops develop.

According to Helen Plant, AHDB’s senior analyst for grains and oilseeds, the maximum average yield for the last five years will require particularly favorable conditions by the end of the season. At the same time, the global market is expected to see an overall decline in wheat production. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the global production will decrease by 11.4 mln tons, reaching 2.28 bln tons.

Production growth is expected to occur in the US and Argentina, but in Russia, Ukraine and the EU, the harvest may be lower.

As for the British market, futures quotes for feed wheat for May 2025 delivery opened at £182.7/t, down almost £4/t from last week. However, prices for the new crop remain higher: November futures started at £195.6/t.

ADM Agriculture traders note that the widening of the price gap between old and new contracts creates favorable conditions for farmers planning to sell the new crop.

Tags: UK, wheat, crop forecast