Wheat prices on world exchanges and in Ukraine are growing, but still remain under pressure from fundamental factors

Severe frosts have practically stopped wheat deliveries to ports by road, forcing traders to raise prices to stimulate trade, but the easing of frosts at the end of the week will allow for increased supply.

The growth of the dollar exchange rate on the interbank market led to an increase in export purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine during the week by 50-100 UAH/t to 10,100-10,400 UAH/t or $208-214/t for food wheat and up to 9,800-10,100 UAH/t or $204-206/t for feed wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports.

March wheat futures on world exchanges rose during the week:

• by 1.3% to $190.3/t – for SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 0.3% to $193.7/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 1% to €191.25/t or $222.7/t – for wheat on Euronext in Paris.

At the same time, HRS wheat futures in Minneapolis fell by 0.3% to $207.6/t.

Quotes are supported by speculative selling, driven by forecasts of a cold snap in the US later this week after fairly warm weather that reduced the snowpack, posing risks to winter crops.

Yesterday was a holiday in the US on the occasion of Martin Luther King Day, so we expect that the speculative growth in quotes will continue until the end of the week, but it will be limited by a reduction in demand from importers.

On January 16, the General Directorate of Food Security of Saudi Arabia (GFSA) held a tender for the purchase of 597 thousand tons of durum milling wheat of any origin with a protein of 12.5% and delivery in May-July, at which it purchased 907 thousand tons of wheat of Russian, Black Sea and European production with delivery to the ports of Jeddah (300 thousand tons), Dammam (127 thousand tons), Yanbu (425 thousand tons) and Jizan (55 thousand tons) at an average price of $ 260.88 / t C & F. Recall that in February 2025, Saudi Arabia purchased wheat at a price of $ 276.37 / t C & F.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat