Wheat prices in Ukraine reached 11000 UAH/t, although world prices began to fall

Containment of wheat sales by farmers amid dry weather leads to further growth in demand and prices from exporters who are trying to form export consignments of grain.

During the week, export demand prices for Ukrainian wheat with delivery to the ports of the Black Sea increased by another 2-4 $/t:

• milling wheat – to 228-232 USD/t or 10900-11100 UAH/t
• feed – to 224-225 USD/t or 10550-10700 UAH/t.

Due to the reduction in the cost of international freight and transshipment in ports, traders during the month increased demand prices by 10-15 $/t, although the speculative growth of world prices caused by frost in the United States, amounted to only 5-10 $/t.

In Ukraine, the weather remains cold and dry, and in the near future significant precipitation is not expected, which negatively affects the recovery of winter crops. The pace of wheat exports from Ukraine in February continued to decline: 939 thsd tons were shipped within 24 days (2.05 mln tonnes in the same period last year), and in total, in MY 2024/25 the country has already exported 11.74 mln tons (11.27 mln tons as of the same date last year).

After the speculative growth of stock prices last week yesterday, the quotations fell by another 1-2.2% on the data on the improvement of crops in Texas, where the week the number of winter wheat in good or excellent condition increased by 4% to 37%, although in Oklahoma decreased by 6% to 34%. In April, the U.S. will start publishing a weekly report on the condition of crops.

March wheat futures fell yesterday:
– by 1.9% to 212.8 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-3.6% for the week),
– by 2.2% to 219.2 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-4%),
– by 1.7% to 228.4 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-2%),
– by 1% to 224.5 €/t or 238.1 $/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext (-2.2%).

Exports of U.S. wheat for February 14-21 increased by 50% to 375,5 thousand tons, but it did not support the quotes. In general, in MY 2024/25 the U.S. exported 15.23 mln tonnes of wheat, up 20.7% compared to last year, but the pace of deliveries is gradually slowing down.

According to “Rusagrotrans”, export prices for Russian wheat with protein 12.5% and delivery in February-March for the week increased by $7/t to 250-252 $/t FOB due to the victory in the tender in Saudi Arabia, as well as amid rising prices for wheat from other countries by 1-2 $/t, in particular Romanian – up to 250 $/t FOB, American – up to 252 $/t FOB, Argentine – up to 239 $/t FOB. At the same time, French wheat fell by 2 $/t to 244 $/t FOB.

Significant stocks of European wheat and improved weather conditions in the US, EU and Russia will continue to reduce demand and prices on the world market. And rising freight costs may limit prices for Ukrainian wheat in the coming months.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat