Wheat prices in Ukraine have stabilized following global quotations

The 1.6-1.8% rise in wheat prices on world exchanges during the week did not support wheat prices in Ukraine, which remained under pressure from lower prices in the EU. The tender in Egypt showed that prices for Ukrainian wheat are the lowest on FOB basis, and Ukraine is ready to offer new volumes of grain.

Egypt’s GASC purchased 290 thousand tons of Ukrainian, Romanian and Bulgarian wheat at a price of $274.82/t C&F, which is $9/t higher than in August. But Algeria this week purchased 600 thousand tons of wheat even cheaper – only 263 $/t C&F, which indicates the presence on the world market a sufficient number of proposals of cheap wheat.

Yesterday, the December futures rose:

• by 0.1% to 209 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+1.8% for the week, -4.4% for the month),
• by 0.8% to 209.8 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+1.7%, -5.8%),
• by 0.9% to 222.3 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+1.6%, -6.6%).

At the same time, December wheat futures on the Paris Euronext fell by 1.5% to 213.75 €/t or 232.5 $/t (0%, -7%).

During the month, the stock price of wheat fell by 4.4-7% amid strong supply and accelerated sowing of winter crops in Ukraine, the United States and Russia.

According to Crop Progress from NASS USDA, in the U.S. as of November 3, 87% of the area planted with winter wheat (89% on average over 5 years), and the number of crops in good or excellent condition for the week increased by 3% to 41% (50% last year).

The U.S. wheat exports decreased by 34% to 193.5 thsd tonnes for the week, and totaled 9.75 mln tonnes in MY 2024/25, up 34% compared to last year.

In Ukraine, the purchase prices in the ports of the Black Sea during the week remained at 210-214 $/t or 9800-10100 UAH/t for food and 203-205 $/t or 9500-9600 UAH/t for feed wheat. Processors amid a shortage of supply increased prices for milling wheat to 9300-9600 UAH/t with delivery to the mill.

In MY 2024/25 (as of November 4), Ukraine exported 7.9 mln tonnes of wheat, up 62% from 4.87 mln tonnes shipped in the same period last year, and half of the export volume agreed in the Memorandum.

Ukraine has planted 4.3 million hectares of winter wheat, or 96% of the area, but the lack of precipitation, especially in the eastern regions, is holding up the work.

Exports of wheat from Russia in October increased from 5.1 to 5.6 million tons compared to September.

Harvesting of wheat in Australia and Argentina will increase the number of proposals on world markets, which will stop the growth of prices for black sea wheat.

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Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat