Wheat prices in Ukraine are rising following quotes on world exchanges

Wheat prices in Ukraine have surged to their highest levels this season, spurring sales by farmers, while traders have increased purchases amid rising U.S. prices due to dry weather.

The fall in the hryvnia exchange rate to 41.55 UAH/$ led to an increase in export demand prices by 50-100 UAH/t to the level of 10,800-11,000 UAH/t or 228-231 $/t for food wheat and 10,550-10,650 UAH/t or 223-225 $/t for feed wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports.

Ukraine has had some light rainfall in recent days, but a sharp drop in temperatures is delaying the resumption of vegetation and the development of winter crops. No significant precipitation is expected during the week, so farmers will continue to hold back wheat sales due to a possible reduction in the harvest in the new season.

Wheat prices on US exchanges started the week up 2.2-3.3% on data on the deterioration of the US crop and increased exports, although they are trading 5.6-8.6% cheaper than a month ago.

The US crop status report will start being published in April, but so far only individual states have provided data. For example, over the week, the number of winter wheat crops in good or excellent condition in Kansas decreased by 2% to 48%, and in Texas increased by 1% to 28%. However, the lack of precipitation against the background of rising temperatures will not greatly contribute to the restoration of vegetation.

May wheat futures rose yesterday:

• by 2% to $208.9/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-8.6% per month),
• by 3.3% to $222.5/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-5.6%),
• by 2.2% to $226/t – for durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-6.5%),
• by 0.4% to €224.5/t or $245/t – for wheat on the Euronext exchange in Paris (-5.6%).

During March 7-13, wheat exports from the United States doubled to 482.7 thousand tons, and in total in the 2024/25 MY reached 16.37 million tons, which is 18.2% ahead of last year’s pace.

To reach the USDA’s projected 22.7 million tons, it will be necessary to export about 580,000 tons of wheat every week for the 2.5 months remaining until the end of the season, which will be difficult to do.

Forecasts of increased wheat stocks at the end of the season in the US and the EU, as well as the expected increase in production in the new season, are lowering prices for new crop wheat to the level of prices for the old crop, although previously the difference was $8-10/t.

Tags: prices, wheat, Ukraine