Wheat prices in Ukraine are rising amid high demand and forecasts of a lower harvest

The US trade war against other countries is increasing uncertainty in global markets and has already weakened the dollar against other currencies as it has undermined confidence in the US. Traders fear a global crisis that will reduce demand in commodity markets.

In Ukraine, on the eve of Easter, high seasonal demand for food wheat remains, which supports prices, especially against the background of a shortage of offers from farmers who have started sowing and reduced trading activity.

Last week, processors offered UAH 11,000-11,500/t for 2-cell wheat delivered to the mill, which significantly exceeds the level of export prices, which increased by UAH 100-200/t to UAH 10,800-11,000/t or $232-235/t delivered to ports.

Corn prices at ports rose to $227-230/t, but feed wheat prices remained at $223-226/t or UAH 10,550-10,650/t, as traders find it difficult to sell expensive Ukrainian feed wheat on the world market.

In the MY 2024/25, Ukraine exported 13.42 million tons of wheat, which is 11.8% less than the corresponding figure last year (15 million tons). At the same time, only 300 thousand tons of wheat were exported in the 2 weeks of April compared to 1.17 million tons in the same period last year.

World wheat prices started the week with a decline. European wheat fell the most due to the rise in the euro exchange rate, which will slow down the already low pace of wheat exports from the EU.

May wheat futures fell yesterday:

• by 1.5% to $201.2/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+2% per week),
• by 2.3% to $204/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-0.7%),
• by 1.7% to $222.2/t – for durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-1.8%),
• by 2% to €214.25/t or $243.2/t – for wheat on the Euronext exchange in Paris (-4.5%).

In the US, prices are falling on forecasts of good rainfall in Kansas and Texas, despite data from the weekly Crop Progress report, according to which the amount of winter wheat sowings in the US during April 7-13 decreased by 1% to 47% (56% last year). Spring wheat was sown at 7% of the area, which corresponds to the 5-year average.

Wheat exports from the US increased by 80% to 604.5 thousand tons during April 4-10, and in total for the season reached 18.3 million tons, which is 14.3% higher than the corresponding figure last year.

The European Union exported only 16 million tons of wheat in the 2024/25 MY, which is 35% lower than last year’s pace, so it is unlikely to reach the USDA’s forecast of 26.5 million tons, although in the MY 2023/24 exports amounted to 38 million tons. The strengthening of the euro against the dollar from $1.08 to $1.135/€ makes European wheat the most expensive on the market, which is why its prices fell by 4.5% last week.

Tags: wheat, Ukraine, prices