Wheat prices fell by 1.8-2.8% amid the cessation of the Israel-Iran war and improved wheat harvest forecasts in Russia

On Monday, wheat prices partially offset last week’s speculative increase of 4-5.6%, caused by the start of an open war between Israel and Iran, as a result of statements about a ceasefire and increased wheat harvest forecasts in Russia.

The Argus agency has increased its forecast for the Russian wheat harvest in 2025 by 4.5 million tons to 84.8 million tons, while the USDA estimates it at 83 million tons.

The Rusagrotrans analytical center predicts that, thanks to increased yields, the Russian Federation will be able to harvest from 85 to 90 million tons of wheat, given the 27 million hectares of sown areas.

July US wheat futures fell yesterday:

• by 2.8% to $203.1/t for SRW wheat in Chicago (+3% for the week),
• by 2.5% to $202.1/t for HRW wheat in Kansas City (+2.6%),
• by 1.9% to $230.3/t for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+0.7%),

September wheat futures on the Paris-based Euronext exchange fell 1.8% yesterday to €204.25/t or $237/t (+2% for the week).

Traders reduced the number of wheat contracts and recorded profits, but after the exchanges closed, the USDA report was released, confirming the delay in the harvest of winter wheat in the US due to rains. As of June 22, it was threshed on only 19% of the area (38% last year and 28% on average for 5 years). The number of winter wheat crops in good or excellent condition decreased by 3% to 49% (52% last year), and spring wheat – by 3% to 54% (71% last year).

According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, total EU wheat production in the 2025/26 MY will reach 135.6 million tonnes (compared to 120 million tonnes in the previous season), despite dry conditions in some growing regions.

ASAP Agri, after conducting a crop tour of eight key regions of Ukraine, estimated the wheat harvest in the MY 2025/26 at 21.74 million tons, which will be 3% lower than the previous season, while the USDA estimates it at 23 million tons. Analysts predict that the average wheat yield this season will be 4.37 ​​t/ha, which will be 3.5% lower than last year.

During the week in Ukraine, export purchase prices for wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports remained stable:

• for food wheat – $207–210/t or UAH 9,700–9,900/t,
• for feed – $198-200/t or 9300–9400 UAH/t.

The start of wheat harvest in the EU, Ukraine and Russia will provide information about the real yield and quality of the new crop, which will increase pressure on prices, as the market currently remains under the pressure of speculative stock market growth. But in a few weeks, the new wheat crop will face the pressure of low demand, which has been observed since May.

Tags: wheat, Ukraine, prices