Wheat prices fall amid increased rainfall in the US, Ukraine and Russia, which increases pressure on prices in Ukraine

Wheat prices on world exchanges started the week down 1.8-2.2% amid increased precipitation in winter wheat growing areas in the US, Ukraine and Russia, as well as forecasts of more precipitation in the coming week. In total, prices fell by 4.3-7.1% in two weeks, which increased pressure on export prices in Ukraine, which began to fall after a week of rapid growth.

Over the past week, the number of winter wheat crops in good or excellent condition in Kansas increased by 1% to 49%, and in Texas by 3% to 31%.

May wheat futures fell yesterday:

• by 1.9% to $201.45/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-3.8% per week, -7.1% per month),
• by 1.9% to $212/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-4.8%, -4.8%),
• by 2.2% to $217.6/t – for durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-3.8%, -6%),
• by 1.8% to €226.75/t or $240/t – for wheat on the Euronext exchange in Paris (-2%, -4.3%).

In Ukraine, export demand prices yesterday decreased by 50-100 UAH/t to 10,700-10,800 UAH/t or $226-228/t for feed wheat and to 11,000-11,200 UAH/t or $223-237/t for food wheat (-6-8 $/t for the week). Ukrainian wheat prices are supported by limited supply and rising prices for Russian grain due to Turkey’s removal of import duties.

According to Rusagrotrans estimates, export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein and delivery in March-April rose by $7/t during the week to a 10-month high of $255/t FOB after Romanian wheat rose by $0.5/t to $255/t, French wheat by $2/t to $249/t, American wheat by $1/t to $243/t, Argentine wheat by $2/t to $243/t, and Australian wheat by $3/t to $248/t.

In Ukraine and Russia, precipitation is expected in the next 7-10 days, which will reduce the impact of the speculative weather factor and allow farmers to accelerate wheat sales against the backdrop of improved production forecasts.

The Institute of Agricultural Market Conditions (IKAR) has increased the forecast for the wheat harvest in the Russian Federation in 2025 by 1.5 million tons from 77-81-85 million tons to 78.5-82.5-86.5 million tons, with a base estimate of 82.5 million tons.

If sufficient rainfall occurs in the winter wheat growing regions of Ukraine and the Russian Federation during the week, wheat prices may significantly decrease following world quotations, especially given the possible introduction of a 25% tariff by the US from April 2 for all countries and a further decrease in wheat prices in the US.

Tags: prices, wheat