Wheat prices are rising against the background of the threat of new attacks on Russian ports

Wheat prices on world exchanges are rising against the background of successful attacks by Ukrainian drones in the area of the Kerch bridge and the main Russian export port of Novorossiysk, which may lead to a reduction in supplies of Russian grain and oil to the world market. In addition, Ukraine’s declaration of Russian ports as a zone of military threat will increase the cost of freight and reduce the number of ship owners willing to enter these ports, as earlier some ships refused to enter Ukrainian ports.

During the week, world wheat quotations fell by 8.5-13.5%, and Friday’s growth almost did not affect the markets. After the close of the exchange, wheat prices continued to rise on electronic togas, so it is likely that prices will also increase today.

On Friday, September futures rose:

• by 0.9% to $232.4/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 0.9% to $243.5/t – for Black Sea wheat in Chicago,
• by 1.4% to €235.25/t or $258.8/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext.

At the same time, futures became cheaper:

• by 1% to $279.2/t – for HRW hard winter wheat in Kansas City,
• by 0.3% to $305.4/t – for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis.

Experts of Refinitiv Commodities Research reduced the forecast of soft wheat production in the EU in 2023/24 MY by 2.3 million tons to 128 million tons, and of durum wheat by 0.5 million tons to 7.6 million tons, compared to previous estimates. which will also support prices.

Ukraine has insured all vessels that import or export goods through the Danube ports, Prime Minister of Ukraine D. Shmyhal said at the conference of ambassadors of Ukraine. This could increase the number of vessels ready to enter the Danube ports.

During the week, grain exports from Ukraine decreased by 30%. In 2023/24 MY, as of August 4, Ukraine exported 880,000 tons of wheat (in particular, 56,000 tons in August), compared to 444 (83) thousand tons last year.

Ukrainian farmers are speeding up harvesting, and as of August 1, 12.5 million tons of wheat were threshed from 2.698 million hectares or 65% of the area with a yield of 4.64 tons/ha, which is significantly higher than last year. This is due to the fact that the statistics did not include the occupied southern regions, where productivity is always lower.

The Egyptian GASC will hold a wheat procurement tender tomorrow, which will become a new indicator of world price dynamics.

Tags: prices, wheat