Wheat losses from drought and frost in Australia could exceed 1 million tons – analysts

Dry weather and frosts in some parts of Australia have worsened crop conditions, so the wheat harvest is likely to be down more than 1 million tons from earlier estimates, according to a Reuters consensus forecast.

Australian farmers had good crop prospects in September as soil in most cultivation zones was well moistened, but rain has been sparse since then, with frosts hitting crops in the south and southeast of the country two weeks ago. “Dry weather in early spring in most regions, as well as widespread frosts in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, have had a negative impact on yield estimates,” the agency quoted Rod Baker of Australian Crop Forecasters as saying.

The expert lowered the forecast of wheat harvest in the season 2024-2025 and now believes that the gross harvest will be no more than 30 million tons against the August estimate of 31.7 million tons. If the rains come in October, they could prevent further losses, Rod Baker elaborates.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecasts above average rainfall in October in almost all winter cropping areas in the southwest, south and southeast of the country. The pace of harvesting will pick up in the coming weeks.

Vitor Pistoia of Rabobank forecasts a harvest of 27-29 million tons against an August estimate of 30.4 million tons. He recalls that frosts have hit wheat crops at an important stage of seed development.

IKON Commodities and Episode 3 lowered their crop forecasts by 1.3 and 1.4 million tons to 34.7 and 31 million tons, respectively.

Australia will produce 26 million tons of wheat in 2023-2024. Gross harvest averaged 29.8 million tons over the five years.

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Tags: Australia, wheat, crop forecast