Wheat harvest and export forecasts are downgraded for Russia

The Institute for Agrarian Market Conjuncture (IKAR) has lowered its forecast for the wheat harvest in Russia in 2025 to 77, 82 and 87 million tons under negative, moderate and positive scenarios, respectively. Earlier, the forecast figures were voiced at 79, 84 and 89 million tons, Reuters reported.

“We see no strong and proper precipitation in January-February, especially in the center and northern part of the Southern region of the country (Volgograd and part of Rostov region). In addition, the upcoming frosts are not so strong, but may affect the condition of already insufficiently hardy plants,” the publication quoted IKAR head Dmitry Rylko as saying.

Wheat export estimates for the 2024/25 season have been lowered to 43 million tons from 43.5 million tons previously.

“This is due to our assessment of the availability of wheat that meets export quality and its placement: high stocks behind the Urals and relatively – low in the south and center of the country,” he said. In addition, the low margin of exporters will affect the pace of exports, Rylko said.

Earlier the analytical center “SovEcon” reduced the forecast of Russian wheat exports in 2024/25 from 43.7 to 42.8 million tons. The head of the Grain Union of Russia Arkady Zlochevsky also seriously reduced estimates for grain exports from Russia at the end of the 2024/25 season to 47-48 million tons, of which wheat will account for about 41 million tons, according to GUR forecasts.

Tags: Russia, wheat