Wheat futures in Chicago rose for a second consecutive day amid concerns that freezing weather in the US and Russia could damage crops. Record-low temperatures across the central and eastern US have supported grain prices, although overall nationwide damage is expected to be limited due to snow cover, according to Bloomberg.
Tom Whittaker, a meteorologist at Aura Commodities, said that severe frost will hit key winter wheat regions in the coming days, but significant losses are expected to be localized, partly because of the protective snow cover. Localized damage is possible in areas with insufficient snow, while in the south and east the main threat comes from freezing rain. Major hard red winter wheat regions, such as Kansas, are unlikely to be significantly affected.
Wheat prices have rebounded from recent lows as funds reduced historically large short positions amid rising weather concerns across the Northern Hemisphere, with additional support from broader commodity market gains. On Friday, wheat futures in Chicago climbed by 0.8%.
Weather concerns have also emerged in Russia, a leading wheat exporter. Unusually cold conditions have not yet impacted winter crops, but SovEcon warned that output could decline if the current frosts persist for another week. Analysts report that soil temperatures currently range from –2°C to –8°C, posing no immediate threat, but the risk of winter kill rises if temperatures fall to –12°C or lower. SovEcon maintains its 2026 wheat production estimate for Russia at 83.8 million tons.
Traders are also monitoring geopolitical developments. The Kremlin stated that the “territorial issue” remains unresolved following talks between President Vladimir Putin and US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner regarding the latest peace plan. Negotiations will continue today and Saturday between representatives from the US, Russia, and Ukraine in the United Arab Emirates.
