Wheat exports from Russia to reach seasonal low in June

The analytical center “SovEkon” has lowered the forecast for wheat exports from Russiain June 2025 to 1.7 million tons, which will be the lowest figure for the MY 2024/25. For comparison, in May exports amounted to 1.9 million tons, and in April – 2.4 million tons, Reuters reports. The previous forecast, published last week, estimated June exports at 1.9 million tons.

The reduction in exports is due to weak trade activity and low profitability for exporters. The weekly review of “SovEkon” notes that ruble prices for wheat and sunflower are decreasing due to a sluggish market. The 2024/25 export campaign ends with minimal monthly shipments of wheat, which reflects difficult economic conditions and limited supply in the domestic market.

The main factors behind the decline in exports are the strong ruble, which reduces the competitiveness of Russian wheat, and negative margins for exporters. Total wheat exports for the 2024/25 season are estimated at 41.5 million tonnes, 10.2 million tonnes less than in the previous season. The forecast for the next season (July 2025-June 2026) is 40.8 million tonnes, indicating a possible increase due to larger carry-over stocks.

Global competition, in particular with Ukraine and EU countries, where the forecast for the 2025 wheat harvest is increasing, is putting additional pressure on Russian exports. Key markets such as Turkey and Egypt are increasingly turning to other suppliers. In addition, declining demand from China for feed grains is negatively affecting grain trade, according to the FAO, complicating Russia’s position on the world stage.

Tags: Russia, export, wheat