Wheat exports from Russia in February may become a record low for 5 years

In February, wheat exports from Russia may be half as much as a year earlier, as prices for the grain continue to rise, according to the Rusagrotrans Analytical Center.

“The forecast of wheat exports for February based on the lines available to Rusagrotrans is 2.2-2.3 mln tonnes, which is 2 times lower than last year (4.4 mln tonnes) and the lowest level since February 2020 (1.9 mln tonnes),” the report says. February will continue the trend of January, by which wheat exports including the EAEU countries are estimated to reach 2.54 mln tonnes, compared to 4.08 mln tonnes a year ago.

Export prices for Russian wheat (12.5% protein) for February-March delivery increased to $242 per tonne FOB (+$4 per tonne compared to the previous week).

“For the first time in the current season, prices reached the level of the 2023/2024 season, while in July-December 2024 they were lower than a year earlier. The price increase is taking place against the background of a significant decrease in supplies from Russia in January 2025 and expectations of this trend to continue in February,” the analysts said.

The export potential of Russia’s main competitor, Ukraine, is also declining. 10.5 mln tons of wheat have already been exported out of a potential 16.5 mln tons (65%). The price of French wheat weakened to $246 per ton (-$1 per ton), while the price of Romanian wheat remained unchanged at $246 per ton. The price of U.S. wheat strengthened to $242 per ton (+$4), and Argentine wheat to $231 per ton (+$2).

Tags: Russia, export, prices, wheat