Wheat export prices rise in Ukraine due to limited supply

Wheat export prices continue to rise amid delayed harvests and low yields in southern Ukraine. Limited supply is driving increased purchasing activity in Black Sea ports.

Over the week, food wheat prices increased by $2–3/t to UAH 10,200–10,400/t ($212–215/t) . Feed wheat prices rose even more by $4–5/t to UAH 9,800–10,000/t ($205–208/t) , which is gradually leveling the price gap between classes.

As of July 11, 2025, 1.24 million tons of wheat have been harvested in Ukraine from an area of 434.8 thousand hectares with an average yield of 2.85 t/ha. In the central regions, where the harvesting campaign is just beginning, the yield is much higher — 5–6 t/ha — and the grain quality is good. This supports the increase in prices for feed wheat.

At the same time, wheat exports in the first 14 days of the new season (2025/26 MY) amounted to only 172 thousand tons, which is four times less than last year for the same period (732 thousand tons).

Global factors also support the Ukrainian market:

• Russian wheat has increased in price by $5–6/t to $228–230/t FOB , but the expected increase in its exports in July to 2.4 million tons (versus 1.2 million tons in June) will intensify competition.
• French wheat rose in price by $6/t to $236/t FOB , Romanian wheat by $7/t ($235/t FOB) , American wheat by $2/t ($224/t FOB) , Australian wheat by $3/t ($252/t FOB) . Argentine wheat, on the other hand, fell slightly in price to $229/t FOB .

Weather factors

Expected precipitation in Ukraine may temporarily slow the pace of harvesting, which will support prices, but at the same time improve conditions for later crops.

In southern regions of Russia, heat and drought are accelerating the wheat harvest but harming corn and sunflowers. At the same time, favorable conditions with moderate precipitation are forecast in central Russia and the Volga region, which will support crop development.

Tags: wheat, Ukraine, prices