Wheat crisis looms in Pakistan as Punjab floods destroy 30% of stocks

Floods in Pakistan’s Punjab province, the country’s breadbasket, have destroyed 30% of national wheat stocks, raising concerns about food security and soaring prices. According to the Pakistan Business Forum (PBF), since late August 2025, floods have claimed 46 lives, affected 3.9 million people, and displaced 1.8 million. In addition to wheat, crops such as rice, maize, cotton, sugarcane, and vegetables have suffered significant damage, exacerbating fears of food shortages.

Pakistan, ranked the world’s eighth-largest wheat producer last year with 31.4 million tons, is estimated by the USDA to have produced 28.9 million tons this year. Ahmad Jawad from PBF noted that the loss of 30% of wheat stocks is worsened by inadequate storage facilities. Wheat prices in cities like Karachi, Quetta, and Peshawar have surged by 40% to 9,000 rupees ($32) per 100 kg, with trader Muzzammil Chappal warning that prices could reach 15,000 rupees ($53) without imports.

Chappal, chairman of the Cereal Association of Pakistan, urged the food ministry to allow imports of 500,000 tons of wheat monthly to stabilize prices. He attributed part of the shortage to farmers using 2.5 million tons of wheat as animal feed due to monsoon-damaged maize crops. Pakistan consumes 33.6 million tons of wheat annually, and without imports, the country risks significant supply disruptions by the season’s end.

Analysts have differing views on the situation. Kamal Ahmed claims that PASSCO’s 4.2 million tons of wheat stocks are largely safe due to flood-resistant storage designs. However, Ahsan Mehanti from Arif Habib Commodities supports the 30% loss estimate and predicts Pakistan will need to import up to 6 million tons of wheat, potentially increasing the import bill by $3 billion. The government is urged to act swiftly to permit imports to ensure food security.

Tags: Kazakhstan, wheat, food security