Wheat, corn and canola prices in Europe continue to fall under pressure from a strong supply

Yesterday on the European markets, the fall in quotations for agricultural crops continued, due to a decrease in demand and a difficult situation in the banking industry, due to which traders switched from short positions on grain to other assets.

The leader of the decline was rapeseed, whose May futures on Euronext, after falling by 3.2% on Monday and by 2.9% on Tuesday, yesterday fell by another 2.4% to a 2-year low of €430.5/t or 469 $/t, losing 30% in a month .

The reason for this was a sharp increase in the import of rapeseed against the background of a decrease in vegetable oil prices. In the 2022/23 MY as of March 19, the EU increased rapeseed imports compared to the same period of the previous season by 54% from 3.81 to 5.87 million tons thanks to active supplies from Ukraine and Australia.

At the same time, the import of soybeans for the specified period decreased by 14.6% to 8.45 million tons, and soybean meal – by 4.6% from 11.78 to 11.24 million tons.

Against the backdrop of increased imports, May corn futures for the week fell by 8.5% to €244.75/t or $266.7/t, losing 16% for the month.

Corn imports to the EU increased by 66% compared to the previous season, from 11.9 to 19.73 million tons, while the USDA estimates it at 23.5 million tons.

May wheat futures for the week fell by 9.7% to €248/t or $270/t, losing 15.4% for the month against the background of abundant rains that improved the condition of winter crops.

Exports of wheat from the EU in the 2022/23 MY as of March 19 increased compared to the previous season by 8% to 22.13 million tons, but by July 1 it will not be able to reach the USDA forecast of 37 million tons.

The main exporters of soft wheat from the EU in the current season were France (8.69 million tons), Romania (2.77 million tons), Germany (2.6 million tons), Lithuania (1.97 million tons) and Poland ( 1.86 million tons).

The export of barley from the EU decreased by 30% compared to the corresponding period of the previous season, from 6.18 to 4.33 million tons.

The fall in prices will stop soon as importers boost demand for European grain, which has fallen sharply as drought worsens crop forecasts for West African countries, traditional buyers of EU wheat.

Tags: corn, prices, wheat, rapeseed, supply and demand balance