According to analysts at StoneX, global wheat and corn markets are moving in different directions as official stock data clash with export momentum. Wheat prices are testing the lower end of a narrow trading range, while corn balances are gradually tightening despite disruptions to Black Sea exports.
The comments were provided by Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX Vice President of Clearing and Execution Sales, a specialist in European and global grain and oilseed markets.
USDA data show 2025/26 U.S. wheat ending stocks rising to 931 million bushels, while world wheat stocks declined to 277.5 million tonnes. At the same time, U.S. wheat exports are running 7% ahead of the target pace, helping offset pressure from higher Canadian inventories and reduced Ukrainian shipments.
Corn fundamentals appear firmer, with USDA lowering 2025/26 world corn stocks to 288.98 million tonnes and U.S. stocks to 2.127 billion bushels. U.S. corn exports are also running 5% ahead of pace, compensating for slower Ukrainian shipments of 9.37 million tonnes versus 13.27 million tonnes a year earlier.
As a result, StoneX says wheat remains rangebound due to comfortable inventories in some origins, while corn continues to find underlying support from tightening balances and resilient export demand.
