What are the risks of blowing up the Kakhovka HPP dam?

The Russian military has mined the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, Ukrainian authorities say. Foreign experts also believe that the Russians are probably preparing to blow up the dam. The Russians themselves accuse Ukraine of such intentions and justify the need to evacuate civilians from the occupied territories of the right-bank Kherson region.

What are the consequences of blowing up the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam?

According to experts, they could be catastrophic.

They mean flooding of surrounding villages and even Kherson down the Dnipro, problems with cooling of Zaporizhzhia NPP and water supply in the south of Ukraine.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba compared it to a weapon of mass destruction. He said the consequences would be equally serious.

At the same time, National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov assured that Ukraine is ready for any scenario.

The Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant is one of the largest energy facilities, with a dam that holds about 18 million cubic meters of water.

Russia’s military goals

Mykhailo Yatsiuk, director of the Institute of Water Problems and Land Reclamation of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, calls the probability of the Kakhovka HPP’s destruction high.

The dam itself is extremely difficult to destroy, he says, but he suggests that explosives could be placed in the emergency spillways or at the dock where the hydraulic units are located.

Western analysts and intelligence believe that there is every indication that the Russians are planning to leave the right bank of the Kherson River.

A water leak would make it impossible to cross, which would in turn protect the Russian military from attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the right bank.

The water from the hydroelectric power plant will become a water barrier, which will be impossible to overcome due to its high level and pressure, the expert says.

Economic implications for Ukraine

The Kakhovka Reservoir is extremely important for the economic complex of southern Ukraine, which solves a number of problems.

In particular, according to Mykhailo Yatsiuk, the reservoir’s primary purpose is to irrigate the south of Ukraine.

“If irrigation systems do not work, the agricultural sector will suffer. The reservoir can be filled again only in the spring, when there is an inflow of water,” the expert explains.

Another issue is drinking water supply. All settlements located on the banks of the reservoir are tied to this level. If the level drops by even a meter, drinking water intakes will not work and the population will not receive drinking water.

The North Crimean Canal is also tied to the water level in the Kakhovka reservoir. If water does not flow there, neither the south of Kherson region nor the Russian-annexed Crimea will receive water.

According to Mykhailo Yatsiuk, Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is a separate issue. It is cooled by water from the Kakhovka Reservoir. If the water level drops and there is not enough water in the cooling ponds, this raises the issue of NPP safety and the threat of nuclear accidents.

Flooding of villages

In the event of an accident at the Kakhovka HPP, all towns and villages below the dam will either be flooded or completely submerged.

President Zelensky stated that more than 80 settlements, including Kherson, would be in the zone of rapid flooding, and hundreds of thousands of people could be affected.

“Imagine when large volumes of water rush through villages at high speed. There will be significant destruction of the coastline, floodplains and outbuildings. In addition, it endangers the lives of people living there,” says Mykhailo Yatsiuk.

The expert emphasized that it is very difficult to predict the risks of uncontrolled water leakage from the Kakhovka reservoir.

Tags: war, Kherson region