Weather will be a key factor in the formation of world grain prices
A reduction in the wheat harvest in Russia and a decrease in global stocks of the crop are expected to lead to higher prices, said Dan Basse, president of AgResource. According to preliminary estimates, the wheat harvest in Russia will amount to 82 million tons, which is in line with Rosstat data. Reduced acreage in key regions, such as Canada, will reduce global wheat production by about 2.5 million tons, and total stocks may decrease by 4 million tons.
The situation on the world markets remains heterogeneous at present, Basse noted. While Brazil’s record soybean harvest of 174 million tons is creating price pressure on the oilseeds market, corn and wheat prices are receiving more support. The decline in global wheat stocks, estimated by the UN FAO at 308.4 million tons, indicates a possible shortage in the short term.
“Weather conditions will be crucial in shaping price trends,” the analyst emphasized. There is excessive humidity in Europe, while drought persists in some regions of the Black Sea basin and the United States. These factors may lead to the growth of world wheat prices in the period from April to May by $15-20 per ton.
Further development of the grain sector in the Black Sea and Danube region will be discussed at the 23 International Conference BLACK SEA GRAIN.KYIV on April 24 in Kyiv.
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