Weather tempers Morocco’s wheat outlook

Despite heavy rains in March, the 2025 wheat crop in Morocco will be below the 10-year average due to hot and dry weather early in the growing season and less area planted, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Production for marketing year 2025-26, which begins in June, is forecast at 1.7 million tonnes for common wheat, 1.1 million tonnes for durum wheat, and 700,000 tonnes for barley.

Total wheat production of 2.8 million tonnes will be higher than the 2.46 million tonnes the previous season but remain significantly below an estimated 4.15 million tonnes in 2023-24.

Barley faces the same dilemma, though 2025-26 production will improve on the previous season’s 660,000 tonnes, it falls short of the estimated 1.35 million tonnes harvested in 2023-24.

“The 2025 season faced significant challenges, primarily due to an extended period of drought,” the FAS said. “The severe lack of rainfall at the beginning of the season resulted in substantial delays, particularly in the southern regions, where seeding was not completed until the first week of January 2025.

“Crops that were planted earlier in the season appear considerably weaker and are expected to produce yields well below average due to prolonged dry conditions that persisted from December through February.”

To cover forecasted wheat demand of 10 million tonnes while maintaining stock levels, Morocco’s 2025-26 imports are projected to reach 7.3 million tonnes, up 42% compared to the 10-year average, while barley imports are forecast at 900,000 tonnes.

Moroccan wheat, flour, and bread prices are politically sensitive and are strictly managed, the FAS noted. The government of Morocco continues to support common wheat imports based on a fixed flat-rate premium, which is intended to maintain low prices for bread – an important staple food served with most meals – and encourage stock building.

Russia has emerged as a significant wheat supplier, with Morocco importing 960,137 tonnes from Russia between June 1 and Dec. 30, 2024. This is about a 278% increase compared to the same period in 2023, the FAS noted. France remains the top supplier for 2024-25 at 43% of total imports, followed by Canada and Germany at 14% each, and Russia at 8%.

Barley is consumed mostly as animal feed, and consumption rates vary depending on local availability and pasture conditions. For 2025-26, the industry anticipates a substantial decline in feed consumption due to significant decrease in livestock numbers in Morocco. Overall demand is projected to be 1.6 million tonnes, down from 2.2 million in 2024-25.

Wheat ending stocks are forecast to be 1.02 million tonnes in 2025-26, the same as 2024-25, while barley stocks are expected to be 108,000 tonnes, also on par with the previous season. Both numbers are down from 2023-24, when wheat stocks reached an estimated 1.17 million tonnes while barley was at 598,000.

“Although official statistics on wheat and barley stocks are not publicly available, industry contacts indicated that as of March 1, 2025, Morocco has a wheat supply that can last for two and half months of consumption, and that importers are actively engaging in contract negotiating to build up stocks,” the FAS said.

Tags: wheat, Morocco, crop forecast