Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has unblocked the signing of the "oil amendments", so domestic rapeseed prices will remain under pressure

At its meeting on July 22, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine did not support draft resolutions to repeal the parliament’s decision to adopt in its entirety the draft law “On Integrated Prevention and Control of Industrial Pollution” (Registration No. 13157), which included amendments to introduce a 10% duty on the export of rapeseed and soybeans. This removed obstacles to the signing of the law by the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Ruslan Stefanchuk, and its submission to the President of Ukraine for signature.

Against the backdrop of the Verkhovna Rada’s decision, export purchase prices for rapeseed in Ukraine decreased by UAH 2,000-2,500/t last week to UAH 23,000-23,500/t with delivery to the port, while processors offered UAH 23,500-24,200/t for rapeseed with delivery to the factory.

But it is more profitable for farmers to sell rapeseed not for hryvnia, but for foreign currency under export contracts at a price of $535–545/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, which allows you to get a price equivalent to UAH 25,500–25,900/t (taking into account VAT reimbursement from the budget upon export).

According to a very optimistic forecast by the Ukroliyaprom association, the volume of rapeseed processing in Ukraine in the 2025/26 MY will be 1.6 million tons, and exports – 1.7 million tons, with total production at the level of 3.3 million tons. But we predict that exports will be about 1.7-2 million tons, and processing will not exceed 500 thousand tons, since production will reach 2.2-2.5 million tons.

Improving weather in Ukraine and the EU will accelerate rapeseed harvesting and increase supply, which is already putting pressure on prices.

August rapeseed futures in Paris have decreased by 5.6% to €472.5/t or $554.5/t over the past month, and November futures have decreased by 5.4% to €481.25/t.

Tags: prices, rapeseed, Ukraine