USDA’s 2026 cattle production forecast is far below expectations

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) decision to revise downward its 2026 beef and pork production forecasts is nothing new, “but it’s also fundamentally flawed,” says a seasoned livestock analyst and trader. The source reports that the agency continues to base its forecasts almost exclusively on historical slaughter data, rather than on supply projections. As a result, the analyst predicts, “USDA will likely undershoot its 2026 pork and beef production forecast by approximately 1 million head.”

“We have already begun revising our own pork and beef production forecasts upward beginning in June 2026, consistent with our forecasts published in late September and October,” the analyst continues. This assessment remains valid. The USDA will almost certainly be forced to revise future reports upward—likely significantly—though the agency may not fully recognize this reality until January 2027 or later. The magnitude of this adjustment will surprise many. The USDA also misread current supply trends beginning in early to mid-2024 and has been playing catch-up ever since.

The industry continues to vigorously debate the idea that beef production in 2026 will be extremely limited, and nothing has changed. “It’s the same argument we made in 2022, 2023, and 2024,” the analyst continued. Yes, prices could still rise in the spring or summer of 2026. But starting in the fall of 2025, the forecasting priority should shift to determining the bottom of the 2026 beef production decline, the impact of rising imports, and the prospects for U.S. production growth from mid-2026 onward. The main risk to the widely anticipated early rally is the expected reopening of Mexico this winter. When this happens, feedlots will reduce finishing days and transfer approximately 300,000 head of cattle that have been held with extended finishing hours for the past 18 months. This freeing up of inventory will be significant.”

Bottom line, according to the analyst: “If USDA continues to base its WASDE cattle forecast solely on historical slaughter data, the simple question arises: why publish it at all?”

Tags: pork, Beef cattle