USDA sharply raises global barley production forecast, putting pressure on prices

In the December report on grain production in the MY 2025/26, FAS USDA experts increased the forecast for global barley production compared to November estimates by 3.12 million tons to 152.94 million tons, which will exceed the previous season’s figure by 9.67 million tons (143.27 million tons in the MY 2024/25 and 143.5 million tons in the MY 2023/24).

In particular, the forecast for Canada was increased by 0.5 million tons to 9.73 (8.14) million tons, the EU – by 1 million tons to 56 (50.29) million tons, Australia – by 0.5 million tons to 15.5 (13.27) million tons, Russia – by 0.1 million tons to 18.6 (16.25) million tons. For Ukraine, the forecast for barley production remained at 5.9 million tons (5.8 million tons in MY 2024/25 and 6.35 million tons in MY 2023/24).

Recall that the forecast for global wheat production has been increased by 8.92 million tons, and the harvest will exceed the previous season by 37 million tons, which will also increase pressure on the prices of both wheat and feed barley.

During the week in Ukraine, export demand prices for feed barley with delivery to Black Sea ports decreased by 200-600 UAH/t to 10,600-11,000 UAH/t or $218-228/t, as traders completed the formation of export batches.

In the MY 2025/26 (as of December 5), Ukraine exported 1.2 million tons of barley, which is 37% lower than last year’s pace and is 46% of the forecasted export for the season. In particular, in November, 78.2 thousand tons of barley were exported, which is 50% lower than in November 2024.

The main importers of Ukrainian grain in July-November were China, which purchased 42% of the total exported volume, Turkey (20%) and Libya (12%). At the same time, Turkey increased imports of Ukrainian barley compared to the previous season by 6.4 times from 36 thousand tons to 233 thousand tons, while China and Libya reduced them by 31% and 37%, respectively.

Analysts predict that in the MY 2025/26, Ukraine will export 2.5 million tons of barley, which will be 11% higher than the previous MY.

Demand for malting barley in Ukraine is practically non-existent, only some malt producers are purchasing the necessary batches at a price of UAH 10,200-10,600/t with delivery to the plant, but they warn that due to the lack of electricity, they plan to stop processing in December-January, so they will resume purchases in the spring.

According to Agritel, prices for malting barley in Europe are €196/t or $229/t, and for feed barley – €192/t or $224/t on FOB France terms.

The fall in feed corn prices is lowering feed barley prices, both in Ukraine and on the world market, so farmers should accelerate barley sales at current rather high prices.

Tags: Ukraine, barley, prices