USDA raises Ukrainian wheat harvest estimate this year
USDA forecasts world wheat production in MY 2025/26 at 816.2 million tons (+9.3 million tons compared to the previous forecast), according to the USDA report for September.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 214.2 million tons (+1.19 million tons). Experts have increased the forecast for ending wheat stocks in the world to 264.06 million tons (+3.98 million tons).
The estimated wheat harvest in Ukraine is 23 million tons (+1 million tons), exports will be at 15 million tons (-0.5 million tons), ending stocks are 1.93 million tons (+1 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest for the USA is 52.45 million tons. Estimated exports are 24.49 million tons (+0.68 million tons), ending stocks are 22.96 million tons (-0.68 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for MY 2025/26:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Export, mln tons | End stocks, mln tons |
| Argentina | 19,5 (-0,2) | 13 (0) | 4,15 (-0,2) |
| Australia | 34,5 (+3,5) | 25 (0) | 5,28 (+0,9) |
| Canada | 36 (+1) | 27 (0) | 4,36 (+0,87) |
| EU | 140,1 (+1,85) | 32,5 (0) | 11,72 (-0,82) |
| Russia | 85 (+1,5) | 45 (-1) | 11,9 (-1,8) |
USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in 2025/26 MY at 140 million tons, import estimate — 6 million tons, final reserves — 124.78 million tons.
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