USDA raises global soybean stock forecast, will continue to pressure prices

The USDA’s June report raised its estimate of global soybean beginning and ending stocks , keeping the market under pressure in the near term. The balance for 2024/25 MY is almost unchanged, but the following changes have occurred for 2025/26 MY:
Main indicators of the soybean balance for the 2025/26 MY (compared to May):
Indicator | June | May | Comment |
---|---|---|---|
Beginning stocks | 124.2 | 123.2 | +1.02 million tons due to stocks in China |
Production | 426.8 | 426.8 | No change, but a record is expected in Brazil (175 million tons) |
World consumption | 424.15 | 424.05 | +0.1 million tons, China: 133 million tons |
Export | 188.43 | 188.43 | No changes |
Imports | 186.86 | 186.86 | China imports 112 million tons (60%) |
Ending stocks | 125.33 | 124.2 | +1 million tons |
Market reaction:
- July futures in Chicago : $383/t (–0.8% per day, –2.8% from May)
- November futures : $377.5/t (–0.2%, –2.9%)
What to expect next:
- The USDA has not yet changed its harvest estimate for Brazil (169 million tons) and Argentina (49 million tons) for the 2024/25 MY.
- However, local analysts (CONAB, Buenos Aires Grain Exchange) expect higher yields , which may lead to a revision of the forecast in July – this will increase pressure on global quotes.
Despite strong demand, excess inventory and a potential record harvest in Brazil could push soybean prices lower further. Traders should watch for the USDA’s July adjustments.
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