USDA raises global soybean stock forecast, will continue to pressure prices

Source:  GrainTrade

The USDA’s June report raised its estimate of global soybean beginning and ending stocks , keeping the market under pressure in the near term. The balance for 2024/25 MY is almost unchanged, but the following changes have occurred for 2025/26 MY:

Main indicators of the soybean balance for the 2025/26 MY (compared to May):

Indicator June May Comment
Beginning stocks 124.2 123.2 +1.02 million tons due to stocks in China
Production 426.8 426.8 No change, but a record is expected in Brazil (175 million tons)
World consumption     424.15 424.05 +0.1 million tons, China: 133 million tons
Export 188.43 188.43 No changes
Imports 186.86 186.86 China imports 112 million tons (60%)
Ending stocks 125.33 124.2 +1 million tons

Market reaction:

  • July futures in Chicago : $383/t (–0.8% per day, –2.8% from May)
  • November futures : $377.5/t (–0.2%, –2.9%)

What to expect next:

  • The USDA has not yet changed its harvest estimate for Brazil (169 million tons) and Argentina (49 million tons) for the 2024/25 MY.
  • However, local analysts (CONAB, Buenos Aires Grain Exchange) expect higher yields , which may lead to a revision of the forecast in July – this will increase pressure on global quotes.
Despite strong demand, excess inventory and a potential record harvest in Brazil could push soybean prices lower further. Traders should watch for the USDA’s July adjustments.

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