USDA raises global oilseed crop and vegetable oil import forecast for MY 2025/26

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its estimate of global oilseed production for the 2025/26 season upwards. According to the new forecast, the harvest of major oilseeds will reach 691.55 million tons. The increase in expectations is explained by higher production of rapeseed in Canada, soybeans in Russia and sunflower seeds in Russia and Kazakhstan, which compensates for the decrease in soybean harvest in India and sunflower seeds in Ukraine and the EU.

In particular, sunflower production in Russia is estimated at 19 million tons, while the forecast for Ukraine has been reduced by 800 thousand tons to 12.7 million tons. The USDA emphasizes that the adjustment for sunseed was a key factor in changing the balance in the global oilseed market.

Regarding global oilseed trade, the forecast for sunflower oil imports has been increased to 12.17 million tons, and rapeseed oil to 7.13 million tons. At the same time, expectations for soybean oil imports have been reduced to 11.94 million tons, and palm oil to 43.42 million tons. The overall forecast for world oil trade has been reduced due to a drop in exports from Ukraine, Argentina, Guatemala and Côte d’Ivoire, which, according to analysts, will outweigh the increase in sunflower oil supplies from Russia and Kazakhstan.

Tags: Ukraine, oilseeds, sunseed, edible oils, crop forecast