USDA raised the forecast of global production and consumption of vegetable oils in 2024/25 MY, but lowered the estimate of stocks, which supported the quotes

In the May report, USDA experts released the first vegetable oil balance sheet for 2024/25 MY, where they increased the forecast of global production by 2% and consumption by 3% compared to the previous season, but reduced the ending stocks estimate by 6%, which supported the soybean oil quotes.

According to the forecast, the world production of vegetable oils in 2024/25 MY will increase to 228.28 mln tonnes (223.8 mln tonnes in 2023/24 MY, 218.33 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY and 208.55 mln tonnes in 2021/22 MY), including soybean oil – to 65.4 (62.4; 58.6 and 60) mln tonnes, palm oil – to 80 (79.3, 78 and 73) mln tonnes, while the production of sunflower and rapeseed oil will remain at 21.7 and 34 mln tonnes, respectively.

Consumption of oils in the food sector will grow more than in industry, as the development of electric vehicles gradually reduces the need for biodiesel. However, industrial consumption will still exceed food consumption.

The global consumption of vegetable oils in 2024/25 MY will increase to 224.9 (218.8, 211.2 and 202.8) mln tonnes, including soybean – to 64.5 (61.4, 58.9 and 59.8) mln tonnes, palm – to 79 (77.44; 74.2 and 69.4) mln tonnes, rapeseed – to 34.36 (33.5, 32.7 and 30.2) mln tonnes, while sunflower will decrease to 20.4 (20.7, 19.5 and 17.55) mln tonnes. The world’s largest consumers – China and India will continue to increase the use of vegetable oils.

The world ending stocks of oilseeds in 2024/25 MY will decrease by 6.4% from 31.8 to 29.9 (31.86 and 29.84) mln tonnes compared to the current season due to the decrease in palm and rapeseed oil stocks.

According to the report, the July soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of exchange for two sessions increased by 5.8% to 1046 $/t (-1.8% for the month, +5.1% for the year), despite the increase in world production and forecast ending stocks of soybeans.

the July futures for palm oil on the Bursa exchange in Malaysia on Friday fell, but yesterday rose 1.6% to 3868 ringgit/t or 815 $/t (+12% for the year), which corresponds to the level of last week.

According to Trading Economics, the average price of sunflower oil for delivery to buyers for the week increased by 1% to 858 $/t (890 $/t last year), but in Ukraine, demand prices in the ports of the Black Sea remained at the level of 800-810 $/t.

the Rise in prices of sunflower meal and oil supports the purchase price of sunflower in Ukraine, which for the week increased by 500-800 UAH/t to 16800-17000 UAH/t or 360-380 $/t delivered to the plant, while prices for deliveries to Turkey and Bulgaria remained at 440-460 $/t DAP.

Tags: soybean oil, prices, USDA Report, edible oils, rapeseed oil, sunflower oil