USDA raised its forecast for soybean production, but lowered its forecast for rapeseed crop in MY 2024/25

In the December supply and demand report, USDA experts raised the forecast of global oilseeds production in MY 2024/25 by 1.16 mln tonnes to 683.38 mln tonnes (657.49 mln tonnes in 2023/24 MY), including soybean by 1.74 mln tonnes and cotton by 0.5 mln tonnes, which offset the decrease of rapeseed production by 1.06 mln tonnes.

Compared to the November estimates, the new soybean balance for MY 2024/25 has undergone the following changes:

• The estimate of initial reserves was reduced by 0.26 to 112.16 million tons (101 million tons in MY 2023/24).
• The global production forecast was increased by 1.74 to 427.14 million tons (394.87 million tons in 2023/24 and 378.4 million tons in 2022/23), in particular for Argentina – by 1 to 52 (48.2 ) million tons For Brazil, the estimate has so far been left at 169 million tons, although local agencies have already raised their forecasts to 170-172 million tons.
• The estimate of world consumption was increased by 1.36 to 403.64 (384) million tons, in particular for Argentina – by 1 to 48.6 million tons.
• The global export forecast was increased by 0.28 to 181.97 (177.47) million tons.
• The estimate of world final reserves was increased by 0.13 to 131.87 million tons, which will exceed last year’s figure (112.16 million tons) by 17.5%.

According to the report, the January futures for soybeans in Chicago increased by 0.5% to 365,5 $/t (-2.2% compared to the data after the release of the November report).

The forecast for world rapeseed production in 2024/25 MY was reduced by 1.06 to 86.18 (89.9) million tons, in particular for Canada – by 1.2 to 18.8 (18.85) million tons, while the Canadian Bureau of Statistics reduced the crop estimate from 18.98 to 17.8 million tons. The export forecast was increased for Ukraine by 0.15 million tons to 3.37 million tons and decreased for Canada by 0.6 million tons to 6.75 million tons due to a decrease in the import forecast for China by 0.4 million tons to 3 million tons. The estimate of world ending stocks was reduced by 0.85 to 7,194 (10.1) million tons.

According to the report, February futures for rapeseed on the Paris MATIF increased by 0.7% to 536.5 €/t or 564.3 $/t (unchanged for the month), and for canola on the Winnipeg Stock Exchange – by 0.4% to 622 CAD/t or 438 $/t (-6.9% for the month).

The forecast of world sunseed production in 2024/25 increased by 0.07 to 50.512 (56.03) million tons, in particular for Russia by 0.3 to 16.3 (17.1) million tons and unexpectedly for Ukraine – by 0.4 to 12.9 (15.5) million tons, while for the EU the estimate was reduced by 0.65 to 8.78 (10.13) million tons. For Argentina, the estimate was left unchanged at 4 (3.9) mln tons. The forecast for global sunflower consumption was increased by 0.1 to 51.313 (56.67) million tons, and the estimate of ending stocks was reduced by 0.01 to 2.27 (3.2) million tons.

In the near future, the oilseed markets will depend on the data on canola harvest in Australia, as well as forecasts of soybean crop in South America.

Tags: rapeseed, USA, crop forecast, Australia, Ukraine, EU, soybean, Canada, USDA Report, sunseed