USDA raised its forecast for global oilseed production, particularly soybeans

In the January world oilseed balance for 2025/26 MY, FAS USDA experts again increased the forecast for world oilseed production by 2.89 million tons compared to December estimates to 693.15 million tons (684.34 million tons in 2024/25 MY and 657.4 million tons in 2023/24 MY), in particular soybean production in Brazil and the USA and sunflower in Argentina, which more than compensates for the decrease in rapeseed and peanut production.

The forecast for global soybean production has been increased by 3.15 million tons, sunflower by 0.3 million tons, while the forecast for rapeseed and peanut production has been reduced by 0.1 million tons.

The forecast for world ending stocks of oilseeds has been increased by 1.47 million tons to 145.07 (141.6) million tons due to increased production.

The forecast for world soybean production in 20205/26 MY has been increased by 3.14 million tons to 425.68 (427.15) million tons, in particular for Brazil – from 175 to a record 178 million tons, which will exceed last year’s figure by 4% and the 5-year average by 17%, although local analysts estimate the harvest at 180 million tons. For the USA, the forecast has also been increased by 0.25 to 116 million tons (119 million tons last year) due to an increase in the harvested area. For Ukraine, the forecast has remained unchanged at 6 (7) million tons, although according to operational data, only 5 million tons have been harvested, and part of the crops could not be threshed.

The forecast for global soybean consumption has been increased by 1.29 million tons to 423.14 (413.5) million tons due to increased processing in Brazil.

The forecast for world ending soybean stocks was increased by 2.04 million tons to 124.41 (123.4) million tons, mainly due to an increase in US stocks due to a decrease in the export forecast by 1.64 to 42.86 (51.2) million tons.

January soybean futures in Chicago fell 1.5% to $379.6/t after the report and are trading 5.2% lower than a month ago, due to low US export rates and rising inventories.

The forecast for world sunseed production was increased by 0.29 million tons to 52.06 (52.31) million tons, in particular for Argentina – by 0.5 to 5.5 (5.1) million tons, but reduced for the Russian Federation – by 0.5 to 17 (16.9) million tons. It is worth noting that for Ukraine the forecast was left at 10.5 (13) million tons, although some areas were not threshed, and according to operational data, only 9.3 million tons were harvested.

Sunseedr prices in Ukraine have begun to recover after falling at the end of the year, and are now 27,000-27,800 UAH/t (with delivery to the factory at 50% oil content), which is 3.7-5% lower than a month ago.

The forecast for global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 MY has been reduced by 0.1 million tons to 95.17 (86) million tons, in particular for the Russian Federation – by 0.4 to 5.6 (4.65) million tons.

Following the report, January canola futures fell 0.8% yesterday to CAD 621/t or $447.6/t (unchanged for the month), while February rapeseed futures in Paris fell 0.6% to €468.25/t or $546.1/t (-0.7% for the month) under pressure from falling soybean prices.

Oilseed markets will remain under pressure from the expected increase in soybean supply from Brazil in January-February, as well as the seasonal spring increase in rapeseed and sunflower supplies, which will put pressure on meal prices, which will also be affected by falling feed corn prices.

Tags: soybean, USDA Report, sunseed, rapeseed, crop forecast