USDA raised its forecast for global oilseed production, including sunflower crops in Argentina and Ukraine

In the March world oilseed balance for MY 2025/26, FAS USDA experts again increased the forecast for world oilseed production by 1.76 million tons to 697.54 million tons (684.9 million tons in MY 2024/25 and 657.4 million tons in 2023/24 MY), in particular sunflower – by 2.06 million tons and rapeseed – by 0.33 million tons, but reduced the forecast for soybean production by 1 million tons.

The forecast for global sunflower seeds production has been increased by 2 million tons to 54.12 (52.8) million tons, in particular for Argentina – by 1.5 million tons to 7 million tons (5.1 million tons in MY 2024/25) and Ukraine – by 0.5 million tons to 11 (13) million tons.

The sunflower seeds export forecast for Argentina has been increased from 0.2 to 0.6 million tons, and the sunflower import forecast for Turkey has been increased from 1 to 1.2 million tons.

In Ukraine, sunseed prices reached a seasonal high of UAH 29,500-30,800/t (delivered to the factory at 50% oil content), which is in line with last month’s level, although they remain under pressure from news of an increased harvest in Argentina and supplies of Argentine sunflower to Bulgaria. Ukrainian farmers have again started to hold back sales in anticipation of an increase in oil prices following the rise in oil prices.

The forecast for world soybean production in MY 2025/26 has been reduced by 1 million tons to 427.18 million tons (427.19 million tons in MY 2024/25), in particular for Argentina – by 0.5 million tons to 48 (51.1) million tons and Ukraine – by 0.5 million tons to 5.5 (7) million tons. For Brazil, the forecast has been left unchanged at 180 (171.5) million tons.

The forecast for global soybean consumption has been reduced by 0.58 million tons to 424.16 (413.4) million tons due to a reduction in processing in Argentina by 0.3 million tons.

The forecast for soybean exports from Ukraine has been reduced from 2.7 to 2.3 million tons due to a reduced harvest, while the import forecast for Iran has been reduced from 2.75 to 2.55 million tons.

The forecast for world ending soybean stocks has been reduced by 0.2 million tons to 125.3 (123.84) million tons.

March soybean futures in Chicago rose 0.6% to $436.2/t after the report was released (5.7% higher than last month) on expectations of a meeting between the US and Chinese finance ministers in preparation for the March meeting between the US and Chinese presidents.

The forecast for global rapeseed production in MY 2025/26 has been increased by 0.33 to 95.5 (86) million tons due to an increase in the harvest in Australia, as a result of which the forecast for canola exports from Australia has been increased from 5.1 to 5.35 million tons. However, for Ukraine, the forecast for rapeseed exports has been reduced from 2.65 to 2.45 million tons against the backdrop of increasing processing volumes.

March canola futures fell 0.7% yesterday to CAD 715/t or $527/t (+7% month-on-month), while oil quotes fell 13% yesterday . Meanwhile, May rapeseed futures in Paris fell 2.6% yesterday to €501/t or $583/t (+2.7% month-on-month in euro terms, but unchanged in dollar terms).

Oilseed markets remain under pressure from rising palm and soybean oil quotes following oil prices, but in the physical market, buyers are not yet in a hurry to increase purchases, expecting oil prices to fall after the end of the war with Iran.

Tags: soybean, USDA Report, sunseed, rapeseed, crop forecast