USDA lowered the forecast of world production of oilseeds, especially soybean crop in the United States, which supported the quotes

In the January supply and demand report, USDA experts lowered the forecast of global oilseeds production in MY 2024/25 by 3 mln tonnes to 680.35 mln tonnes (657 mln tonnes in MY 2023/24), including soybean – by 2.88 mln tonnes, rapeseed – by 1 mln tonnes, offset by the increase of cotton production by 0.7 mln tonnes and sunflower production by 0.18 mln tonnes.

Compared to the December estimates, the new global soybean balance for MY 2024/25 has undergone the following changes:

• The estimated beginning stocks increased by 0.22 to 112.38 mln tonnes (101.24 mln tonnes in MY 2023/24).
• The forecast of world production is reduced by 2.88 to 424.26 million tons (394.97 million tons in 2023/24 MY and 378.4 million tons in MY 2022/23), in particular for the United States – by 2.58 to 118.84 (113.27) million tons, as USDA experts sharply reduced the estimate of average soybean yield in the United States from 3.47 to 3.407 t/ha (with analysts’ estimates at 3.467 t/ha) and the forecast of harvesting areas – by 250 thousand acres to 86.05 million. acres. For Brazil and Argentina, the harvest forecasts are still left at 169 and 52 million tons, respectively, amid mostly favorable weather conditions for crops.
• The estimate of world consumption was increased by 1.89 to 405.53 (384.3) million tons, in particular for Brazil – by 1 to 59.1 (58.6) million tons.
• The forecast for world exports was left unchanged at 181.97 (177.62) million tons.
• The estimate of world ending stocks was reduced by 3.5 to 128.37 million tons, which is 14.2% higher than the previous season (112.38 million tons).

On the basis of the report, January soybean futures in Chicago increased by 2.1% to 372,4 $/t (+1.9% compared to the data after the release of the December report). Additionally, the quotes supported the reduction of soybean stocks in the United States (as of December 1) to 84.3 million tons, which is 3 million tons less than analysts’ estimates and only 2.7 million tons higher than last year.

The forecast of global rapeseed production in MY 2024/25 was decreased by 1.01 to 85.17 (89.69) mln tonnes, in particular, for India – by 0.5 to 11.6 (11.2) mln tonnes, and for Russia – by 0.5 mln tonnes, but for Canada the estimate was left at 18.8 mln tonnes, although the official forecast of Statistics Canada is 17.8 mln tonnes.

The forecast for rapeseed exports was increased for Canada by 0.5 to 7.25 million tons, but decreased for Ukraine by 0.2 to 3.17 million tons and Australia by 0.2 to 4.55 million tons.

Forecasts of rapeseed imports for the EU and China were left at 6.85 (5.45) and 3 (5.5) million tons, respectively. Estimates of world ending stocks of rapeseed increased by 0.45 to 7.64 (10.86) million tons due to a decrease in domestic consumption by 0.68 million tons and an increase in initial stocks by 0.75 million tons after recalculation of the balance for MY 2023/24.

According to the report, February futures for rapeseed on the Paris MATIF increased by 1.7% to 542.5 €/t or 556 $/t (+1.1% for the month), and March futures for canola on the Winnipeg Stock Exchange – by 2.5% to 641.6 CAD/t or 445 $/t (+3.2% for the month).

The forecast of global sunflower production in MY 2024/25 was increased by 0.18 to 50.69 (56.03) mln tonnes, in particular for Russia – by 0.25 to 16.55 (17.1) mln tonnes. For Argentina, the estimate was left unchanged at 4 (3.9) million tons. The forecast for world sunflower consumption was increased by 0.19 to 51.5 (56.7) million tons, and the estimate of ending stocks – by 0.1 to 2.36 (3.3) million tons.

Sharp rise in prices for soybean oil on Friday by 6% will continue this week to support prices for sunflower and palm oil.

Tags: soybean, sunseed, rapeseed, crop forecast