USDA lowered its forecast for soybean crop, but raised its forecast for rapeseed production

In the January report, the USDA experts almost did not change the forecast of global soybean production, as the decrease in Brazilian harvest is offset by the increase in Argentina, the United States, China, Russia, Bolivia and Paraguay.

Compared to the December estimates, the January soybean balance for 2023/24 MY has undergone the following changes:

• The estimate of beginning stocks remained at 101.87 (98.03) million tons.
• The forecast of global production was increased by 0.1 to 398.98 (375.4) mln tonnes, in particular, for Argentina by 2 to 50 (25) mln tonnes (while Rosario Exchange raised its forecast to 52 mln tonnes amid favorable weather), the US – by 0.95 to 113.3 (116, 32) million tons due to increased yields, Paraguay – by 0.3 to 10.3 million tons, China – by 0.3 to 20.8 (20.28) million tons, Russia – by 0.4 to 6.8 million tons, while for Brazil the estimate was reduced by 4 to 157 (160) million tons due to dry and hot weather in the Central States. At the same time, analysts estimate the harvest in Brazil at 156.3 mln tonnes, and the local agency CONAB lowered its forecast by 5 to 155.3 mln tonnes.
• The forecast for world exports was raised by 0.65 to 170.94 (171.56) million tons, in particular for Paraguay and Russia, but the estimate for Brazil was not changed, despite the reduction in production.
• The forecast for world imports was raised by 0.7 to 168.35 (164.84) million tons, but the estimate for China was left at 102 (100.85) million tons.
• The estimate of world ending stocks was increased by 0.3 to 114.6 (101.87, 99.7 and 100.3) million tons, while analysts estimated them at 111.58 million tons. For the US, the estimate was raised by 1 million tons, for Argentina by 1.4 million tons, and for Brazil by 1.8 million tons.

According to the report, March soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 1% to 453.5 $/t (-7.1% compared to the data after the release of the December report).

The Forecast of world rapeseed production in 2023/24 MY experts USDA increased by 0.1 to 87,1 (88,82) million tons, but the export estimate was left unchanged.

The forecast of global sunseed production in 2023/24 MY was lowered by 1.26 to 55.54 (52.38) mln tonnes, in particular for Argentina – by 0.2 to 4.3 mln tonnes, EU – by 0.45 to 10.2 mln tonnes, Russia – by 0.4 to 17.1 mln tonnes (although Rosstat estimates the harvest at 16.7 mln tonnes), while for Ukraine the estimate was left at 14.5 mln tonnes. In addition, the forecast of sunflower imports to Turkey was reduced by 100 thsd tonnes, and exports from Argentina by 50 to 150 thsd tonnes and Russia by 100 to 450 thsd tonnes. For Ukraine, the export forecast was left at 500 thsd tonnes.

Tags: soybean, USDA Report, sunseed, rapeseed