USDA lowered its forecast for oilseed production in MY 2024/25 due to lower sunseed and rapeseed harvest

In the September WASDE supply and demand report from USDA, the forecast of global oilseeds production in MY 2024/25  was decreased by 3.12 mln tonnes to 687.42 mln tonnes (657.82 mln tonnes in MY 2023/24), including sunseed – by 2 mln tonnes and rapeseed – by 1.27 mln tonnes, partially offset by the increase of soybean harvest by 0.47 mln tonnes.

Compared to the August estimates, the new soybean balance for MY 2024/25 is almost unchanged:

• Estimated beginning stocks were left at 112.25 mln tonnes (100.66 mln tonnes in MY 2023/24).
• The forecast of world production was increased by 0.47 to 429.2 million tons (394.75 million tons in MY 2023/24 and 378.4 million tons in MY 2022/23), in particular for Canada – by 0.3 to 7.2 million tons and Paraguay – by 0.5 to 11.2 million tons. For the US, the estimate was left at 124.9 (113.34) million tons, although analysts expected a lower forecast.
• The estimate of world consumption was increased by 0.14 to 402.98 (383.29) million tons.
• The estimate of world exports was increased by 0.41 to 181.63 (177.95) million tons, in particular for Paraguay – by 0.5 to 7.3 million tons. For the US, the forecast was left at 50.3 million tons, for Brazil – 105 million tons.
• The forecast of world ending stocks was increased by 0.28 to 134.58 million tons (112.25 million tons, 99.7 million tons and 100.3 million tons).

For MY 2023/24, the USDA experts left the forecast of soybean crop in Brazil at 153 million tons and exports – 105 million tons, although the local agency Conab estimates them at 147.38 and 92.4 million tons, respectively, so in the October report, the estimates may be adjusted.

According to the report, the November futures for soybeans on the Chicago stock exchange increased by 1% to 371,4 $/t (+2.5% compared to the data after the release of the August report).

The forecast of world rapeseed production for MY 2024/25 was reduced by 1.27 to 87.56 (89.35) million tons, in particular for the EU – by 1.25 to 17.65 (19.98) million tons. At the same time, the forecasts for Ukraine remained unchanged at 3.7 million tons (although the harvest is complete and the harvest amounted to 3.4 million tons), Canada – at 20 million tons (while StatCan estimates the harvest at 19.5 million tons and local analysts – at 19 million tons), Australia – 5.5 million tons and Russia – 5.1 million tons. The import forecast for the EU was increased by 0.3 to 6.6 mln tonnes, which is significantly higher than 5.5 mln tonnes in MY 2023/24.

The forecast for global rapeseed exports was lowered by 0.2 to 17.28 mln tonnes, in particular for Canada – by 0.45 to 7 mln tonnes, while for Australia the estimate was increased by 0.25 to 4.75 mln tonnes. For Ukraine, the export forecast was left at 3.3 million tons, while processing was estimated at 400 thousand tons, which raises doubts among analysts.

the August futures for rapeseed on the Paris MATIF rose 0.1% to 466,25 €/t or 516,8 $/t (+1.3% for the month).

The forecast of world sunseed production for MY 2024/25 was reduced by 2 to 50.5 (55.93) million tons, in particular for Ukraine – by 1 to 12.5 (15.5) million tons, the EU – by 0.65 to 9.5 (10) million tons, Kazakhstan – by 0.15 to 1.4 million tons and Moldova – by 0.15 to 0.7 million tons. For Russia, the estimate was left at 16 (17.1) mln tons. The forecast for global sunseed processing was reduced by 1.8 to 46.9 mln tonnes, in particular for Ukraine – by 1 to 12.15 mln tonnes and the EU – by 0.45 to 8.6 mln tonnes. The ending stocks estimate was reduced by 0.07 to 2.38 million tons.

Further adjustments to the rapeseed harvest for Ukraine and Canada and sunseed in Russia and the results of soybean planting in Brazil (where dry, hot weather continues) will support oilseed prices in the near future.

Tags: soybean, Canada, USDA Report, sunseed, rapeseed, USA, Australia, Moldova, Ukraine, Paraguay, Russia, Kazakhstan, Brazil