USDA left the assessment of the wheat crop forecast in Ukraine unchanged
The world wheat production in 2024/25 season is forecasted at 793.79 mln tonnes (+0.55 mln tonnes to the previous forecast). This is evidenced by the USDA report for February.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 208.99 million tons (-3.01 million tons). Experts lowered the forecast of ending wheat stocks in the world to 257.56 million tons (-1.26 million tons).
The assessment of the wheat harvest forecast in Ukraine remained unchanged – 22.9 million tons, the export forecast was reduced by 0.5 million tons – to 15.5 million tons. Ending stocks will be at 1.29 million tons (+0.3 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest in the United States remained unchanged – 53.65 million tons, exports are estimated at 23.13 million tons, ending stocks – 21.62 million tons (-0.09 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for MY 2024/25:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Exports, mln tons | Reserves, mln tons |
| Argentina | 17,7 (+0,2) | 11,5 (0) | 3,7 (+0,2) |
| Australia | 32 (0) | 25 (0) | 2,61 (0) |
| Canada | 34,96 (0) | 26 (0) | 4,59 (+0,7) |
| EU | 121,3 (0) | 28 (-1) | 10,59 (0) |
| Russia | 81,5 (0) | 45,5 (-0,5) | 9,74 (+0,5) |
USDA analysts forecast the wheat production in China in 2024/25 MY at 140.1 mln tonnes, the imports estimate – 8 mln tonnes (-2.5 mln tonnes), the ending stocks – 130.6 mln tonnes (-2.5 mln tonnes).
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