USDA forecasts record in global coffee production

Global coffee production in the next crop year (October 2025 to September 2026) is forecast to reach a record 10.7 million tonnes, largely due to a significant increase in the robusta crop, according to the USDA forecast.

“Global coffee production in 2025-26 is forecast to be 4.3 million bags higher than the previous year, at a record 178.7 million (10.7 million tonnes), due to continued recovery in Vietnam and Indonesia, and record production in Ethiopia,” the report said. At the same time, Arabica production is forecast to decline by 1.7%, to 5.8 million tonnes, while robusta production is forecast to increase by 7.9%, to 4.9 million tonnes.

Global coffee bean exports are set to rise by 42,000 tonnes next season to 7.3 million, as increased supplies from Vietnam, Ethiopia and Indonesia more than offset declines from Brazil and Colombia. The largest importers will remain the EU with 2.7 million tonnes, the US (1.4 million), Japan (372,000), Russia (228,000) and Switzerland (210,000). Brazil’s total coffee harvest is set to increase by just 18,000 tonnes to 3.9 million in 2025-26. Robusta output is set to rise by 186,000 tonnes to a record 1.4 million, as abundant rainfall has improved fruit set and development in the main producing states of Espirito Santo and Bahia. Arabica production is expected to decline by 168,000 tonnes to 2.45 million tonnes as drought and high temperatures in Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo negatively affected flowering. Despite the increase in production, exports are expected to decline by 6% to 2.3 million tonnes as importing countries are reluctant to replenish their stocks amid high prices.

Vietnam will continue to recover coffee production next year, reaching 1.9 million tonnes (+6.9%) due to higher yields amid favorable weather. In addition, high coffee prices have allowed producers to increase their fertilizer spending to further increase yields. The area under production is expected to remain virtually unchanged, with Robusta still accounting for almost 95% of total production. Bean exports are expected to increase to 1.5 million tonnes from 1.4 million in the current season.

Colombia’s production is set to fall 5.3% next year to 750,000 tonnes, as heavy rains and cloud cover disrupted flowering and reduced yields. Bean exports, mainly to the United States and the European Union, are set to fall 30,000 tonnes to 642,000 tonnes.

In Ethiopia, production is expected to rise to a record 694,000 tonnes, up 8.7% from the 2024-25 crop year. The country’s increased output is due to the replacement of more than half of its planted area with higher-yielding varieties of coffee. Bean exports are forecast to be 466,000 tonnes, up from 418,000 this season.

In Indonesia, output is set to increase to 675,000 tonnes from 642,000. Robusta production is expected to reach 588,000 tonnes if favourable weather conditions persist in South Sumatra and Java, where about 75% of the country’s robusta is grown. Arabica production is also expected to increase slightly, to 87,000 from 84,000 tonnes. This will lead to an increase in overseas shipments of 6.6%, to 390,000 tonnes.

Tags: crop forecast